Dear fellow JCPOA supporters: Do not get sucked into this latest crazy nonsense about what Kerry or others may or may not be doing. It is an obvious and unnecessary head fake by opponents, considering they're currently ruling the policy roost in Washington. 1/
The fact that the JCPOA was working and may still work at constraining Iran's nuclear program for some time is a good thing. There is nothing harmful about encouraging Iran not to antagonize the rest of the P5+1 by restarting the nuclear program or indeed doing other things. 2/
In fact, a senior USG official once confidently told me that he thought that Iran would do nothing if we withdrew from the JCPOA and that, therefore, we'd have the best of both worlds in keeping Iran away from the bomb and escalating the pressure quickly. 3/
I think he's probably wrong and that this first few months of continued Iranian compliance will end after they see what Europe is able to bring to the table (not much). 4/
But, in any event, it sure seems to me like telling Iran to keep calm is in keeping with this USG official's ambitions and hopes, and far from contrary to US interests. 5/
As for whether Kerry (or any other official) is saying "and don't worry, in two years, hopefully this will all be over," it seems to me that ANY person of the opposite side in a political spectrum would make that kind of utterance. 6/
In fact, I wonder...is it possible...just perhaps...that current Trump appointees or indeed those who thought they'd be staffing a GOP-led Administration before Trump might have said the same to, say, Israeli or Saudi officials during Obama's tenure? 7/
And as for all of this "but he's a former SecState," it's a good thing that Kissinger, Albright, Baker and -- oh, almost every other SecState -- completely disappeared from public life after leaving office so that this particular allegation won't be seen as complete hogwash. 8/
For the dear JCPOA opponents: look, you guys have won for the time being. You got your withdrawal and you got your snap-back. (You're welcome, by the way, as it certainly appears snap-back had some teeth after all. Huh, who knew?) 9/
Kvetching about whether those of us who supported the JCPOA are telling people that we think you're wrong and that we hope to correct this Administration's mistakes in the future is hardly an unprecedented act. 10
If you're so confident in what you're doing, you certainly ought to be able to convince the rest of the world to stay on target. You don't think that your guy will be out of office in 2021, now do you? 11/
You've got far more important things to do, like trying to actually organize a sanctions effort most of the rest of the world abhors and without causing Iran's nuclear program to restart or the global oil market to go out of whack. Concentrate, please. 12/12
