Thread by @YadlinAmos

inss.org.il/publication/ri…
As I assess in my latest #INSS Insight, the Iranians are sending a violent but measured message without claiming responsibility. After the strike against 4 oil tankers, the Iranian-backed Houthis launched a strike to target Saudi oil infrastructure.1/11

The Iranians are signaling that they are capable of hitting oil exports beyond Hormuz – and that if they cannot export because of sanctions, then the Saudis and Emiratis will pay a price as well.
2/11

Raising oil prices will hurt Trump’s presidential campaign, and it will serve Iranian interests by allowing it to make more profit off of the reduced quantity that it is exporting, in particular following the end of US waivers.
3/11

There’s also unconfirmed report of a cyber response against an Iranian oil installation in Tabriz. I am skeptical that such a response could be launched on such a short timeline. But this would point to an interesting logic behind the 2 sides’ actions: ... >>>
4/11

both are signaling, but not taking responsibility and not interested in escalation.
But it could also unfold as follows: During the Iran-Iraq war, in 1988, after a US frigate was damaged by an Iranian mine, the Americans launched a strike that sunk ½ of Iran’s naval power.
5/11

Trump understands that U.S. credibility is on the line here – what happens in Iran will be studied in Pyongyang and Beijing. However, both Trump and Khamenei have clarified in no uncertain terms that they don’t want war and there won’t be war.
6/11

Khamenei also declares that there is no return to negotiations. But it is certainly possible that there will be – in the meantime Iran is working to build a strong hand for when that happens.
7/11

The Israeli perspective: Because Iran’s escalatory steps thus far have been against an American allies it is also possible that there will be an escalation against Israel (via Syria and Lebanon or terror abroad).
8/11

But more important still is the question: Do Trump and Netanyahu fully understand the strategic end game they are trying to achieve through maximum pressure, as well as the policy’s risks?
9/11

5 Scenarios should be analyzed :
1. Conflict below the threshold of escalation – the Iranians wait for a Dem to be elected in 2020
2. Uncontrolled escalation
3. Return to negotiations -> better deal
4.Return to negotiations (Kim Jong Un model) -> problematic deal
10/11

5. Iran leaves the agreement and returns to full scale nuclear program (in extreme case leaves NPT)
Whatever happens in this scenario, the ball will soon be back in 🇺🇸&🇮🇱
court. Are we ready?
11/11 and last