Thread by @hilzoy

1/ @joshtpm thinks we need to worry because (oversimplification) there's no one around to restrain Trump's worst impulses on Iran. I disagree.

Time to Get Very Worried About Trump and Iran (membership required) talkingpointsmemo.com/prime-beta/tim… via @TPM

2/ Not about the worrying part. (I am very worried.) But not because Trump is unchecked.

Trump is profoundly ignorant. He has only a very few thoughts, like "everyone is taking advantage of us", and "everything Obama did was bad."

3/ He also has a few go-to instincts, like "always hit first", and "stop the immigrants", and "you will respect my authoritah!!!".

Somewhere in the second tier of thoughts is: who wants to get entangled in a war? What's in it for me?

4/ @joshtpm draws an analogy to the Mueller report, where Trump's appointees repeatedly failed to carry out his orders, and says: there's no one like that now, in FP. But I see no reason to think that Trump, left to himself, would order war with Iran.

5/ The danger is rather that he is so, so profoundly ignorant that he is the plaything of his advisors. They can propose virtually anything, and as long as it doesn't violate one of the Very Few Thoughts, they can get him to agree.

6/ In this case, his main advisor is John "My one goal in life is to get us into a war with Iran" Bolton.

If Sessions had said "let's fire Mueller", Trump would have said "hell yeah!". If Bolton says "let's go to war with Iran", just like that, I think Trump would say "wtf?"

7/ But Bolton can take the steps he needs to make war with Iran seem like the only way to maintain one of Trump's Prime Directives, like "never look weak" or "always hit back." Trump is MUCH too ignorant to see this coming. Again: he is the plaything of his advisors.

8/ I'm with these officials: "Privately, several European officials described Mr. Bolton and Mr. Pompeo as pushing an unsuspecting Mr. Trump through a series of steps that could put the United States on a course to war before the president realizes it."
nytimes.com/2019/05/14/wor…

9/ (Anyone who follows me knows that I do not bend myself out of shape to be charitable to Trump. I just think it's important to be clear about what's happening. And my read on Trump is not: he really wants to go to war with Iran, and now no one will restrain him.)