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How much difference would a new Tory PM make to Brexit?
A couple of thoughts
1/
A couple of thoughts
1/
Let's assume it would be failure to secure 2nd reading of WAB that triggered an immediate-ish resignation by May, since success here would open door to completing WA ratification as per May's previous plan
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That means a new CON leader would still be faced with the same problems that May has now, namely choice of leave with deal/leave with no deal/not leave
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While Commons arithmetic is the same (no CON maj, a very particular DUP, and an opposition focused mainly on unseating CONs), key Q is how does new PM's desired outcome to Brexit change things?
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Again, let's assume new PM is harder than May, if only because CON party membership is harder (and they'll be choosing from top 2 candidates)
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That suggests remain is even less of an option than before, and that no-deal is seen less problematically
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Probably the main push would be for renegotiation of WA.
Which will fail.
7/
Which will fail.
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EU very clear about need to protect interests on WA issues (finance, citizens' rights, Ireland), and shifting sands of British politics only ever reinforces that view, so ever less incentive to move on this
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So new PM has to decide whether to drop WA and go no-deal, or do a 'Nixon to China' and push for WA once again
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no-deal might be acceptable to DUP, but highly doubtful that it can command a Commons majority (as seen in indicative votes in April): even with more CON unity and new PM bounce, no good reason to see radical shift
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Which comes back to 'Nixon to China'
Sell might be one of 'we've got to get this out of the way, so we can reset relations in the negotiations on the future relationship'
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Sell might be one of 'we've got to get this out of the way, so we can reset relations in the negotiations on the future relationship'
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Problem here is that DUP still don't want the backstop, along with a bunch of CON backbench (and prob frontbench in this new PM scenario), and LAB still hasn't got a reason to help dig new PM out of this hole
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So we're back to where we started: blocked
Thus October is going to another round of Art.50 extension debate, maybe bundled with prospect of new General Election as means of settling matters
(spoiler: it probably wouldn't)
13/
Thus October is going to another round of Art.50 extension debate, maybe bundled with prospect of new General Election as means of settling matters
(spoiler: it probably wouldn't)
13/
tl;dr the problem isn't May: it's the lack of support for any of the options on the table
/end
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