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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
, 8 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
1) Want to know the realistic range of seats each EU-wide party can win in this weekend's election? Using POLITICO's poll of polls, I calculated five scenarios for each party. Here is the one of the biggest party, the @EPP: 161 to 181 seats, out of 751. #EUelections2019 #EP2019
2) The projected seat range for the @TheProgressives / Socialists is 135 to 157. This would go up if, for example, Wiosna (Poland) joins them.
3) The projected seat range for @ALDEParty plus @enmarchefr is 101 to 113.
4) The projected seat range for @matteosalvinimi new alliance is 69 to 79
5) The projected seat range for @ecrgroup / @ACREurope is 53 to 60
6) The projected seat range for the @EuropeanGreens and @EFAparty is 53 to 59
7) Projected seat range for @GUENGL (the Green Left) is 48 to 54
8) Projected seat range for @M5S_Europa and @brexitparty_uk (former EFDD) is 45 to 51
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
In case you were wondering, more than 210,000 watched the EU presidential #MaastrichtDebate livestream. We don’t know TV numbers yet. #EUelections2019 #EP2019
Also, content on the #MaastrichtDebate appeared in more than 20 million social media feeds Monday night
This week we will release a 35 minute audio highlight package of the debate as part of EU confidential #podcast #EUelections2019
Read 4 tweets
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
Another #Brexit #thread
1/ Here's the thing about the Theresa May — Jean-Claude Juncker spat over whether May was vague or not at the #EUCO summit table about her Brexit demands. It’s a sideshow because the undeniable reality is that Westminster-at-large is vague.
2/ Westminister is undeniably vague via there being no majority for any type of Brexit, yet an absolute insistence from the British government and opposition leader that nevertheless a hard-ish take back control Brexit must happen.
3/ That cul-de-sac is Theresa May's fault. Other leaders might have called Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Strugeon, Carwyn Jones and Arlene Foster round a single table and told them they weren't leaving until a tolerable version of Brexit could be agreed or, per above, tolerated
Read 14 tweets
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets

Related threads

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WeThePeople #ForTheMany #DangerousHero #JC4PM2019
@gaurangmorjaria
#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
1997-2015: Blairites/ Others lost 180 seats & 5mn voters
2017: Corbyn 12.8mn votes/ Gained 32

2019:

add first time voters (75% of those who vote, vote for Labour)

Subtract 2% of the population, 80% of whom vote Tories!

Labour Landslide on the cards!
Lab’s share of vote could be 14.5+mn

Once we take into account first time voters- 16 or under at 2017

first time voters -never voted before, disenchanted by Blair years whilst

removing Tory support -loss of voters due to old age

=> Lab will gain 100+ seats from Tories alone
Read 32 tweets
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Dan Butts ⭐️⭐️⭐️
@dwnbutts
Want to stop the press from lying? I can tell you how. I'll make it easy for you. First, you go to the Podesta FARA filings and you find the list of news organizations, elected officials, senate committees and everything else. Then, just pick one. THERE ARE PAGES.
Then, you go to your trusty Manafort court filings and find the crimes. That's simple. Mueller made it pretty concise. Then, you contact said entity and ask them to explain why they're mentioned in court documents related to foreign governments using news to affect US policy.
@thehill Hey guys, can you explain the contents of the email from the lobbyists working for the Ukraine affecting US policy back in 2012? I know you're part of the story, but can you start covering this? Seriously guys, this is a serious national security incident.
Read 13 tweets
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
Right now in the Oval Office @POTUS and @JunckerEU are meeting.
Both express hope for a resolution of trade differences.
In the Oval Office meeting @POTUS says "we want to have a fair trade deal."
Read 5 tweets
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Johann Ketel
@johannketel
“May has left our fingers in the EU mangle but there is a way to get free”; highly dillusional article by ⁦@DavidDavisMP⁩. 1/

thetimes.co.uk/article/335917…
Take this for example, ditch #EU regulation and replace it in order to reach a trade deal with the US. They will have us for breakfast, forcing further deregulation and acceptance of harmful agri-products. Industry don’t necessarily want it and in services they will squeeze us./2
This; how, what and when? @DavidDavisMP has been Secretary of State for 2 years and hasn’t come up with any substantial and viable proposals, as the technology doesn’t exist. Neither has he strongly engaged with the #EU27 to work this out due to lack of internal HMG agreement. /3
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Alex Wellerstein
@wellerstein
One reflection on the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Every year that I teach my nuclear history course, I have the students do a mock-NPT treaty exercise (instead of a midterm, because I hate grading tests). (thread)
In the exercise (which I'm happy to send copies of to other academics who are interested), the students role-play as a few of the key countries who were involved in the NPT negotiations, based roughly on Mohamed Shaker's history of the NPT.
Each of the "delegations" are given talking points and ultimatums from their heads of state, reflecting the real-world positions of the countries in 1968.

(Usually the ones I use are US, USSR, UK, Ireland, India, Brazil, Egypt, Poland, and Mexico, which give a lot of options.)
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The #EU decision to trigger "nuclear option" #article7 against Poland is extremely awkward for UK and bad news for a deeply divided EU leadership that lost its head when Macron got elected. A 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/2…
First. The problem for Mrs May, both immediate and longer term.

1. The UK has invested huge amount of diplomatic capital in expanding UK-Polish relationship after #Brexit

German MEP on recent visit said Polish officials joking about sheer number of UK ministers who visited/2
They sent 150 Lightdragoons for Nato trip-wire, started Belvedere Forum and even deployed heavy weaponry (Wills n Kate) in the Summer.

Tomorrow May, Hammond and Boris all going. A PM, Fgn Sec and Chancellor in one hit. That's serious diplomatic love. /3
Read 16 tweets

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