Thread by @BrunoBrussels

It was the fourth EU election I covered here in Brussels last night
So (sorry as it’s a crowded market) some reflections/a thread #ep2019
Sorry

The first one I did here was 2004
The EPP/Socialist majority (a combined 485 out of 732 MEPs) and machine was chugging away at the heart of the EU - like a well ordered German diesel

There were cracks - Farage did well
The French Socialists + others were pushing Chirac for a referendum on the newly agreed EU constitution - an upheaval to come
Some writing on the wall, the 2005 French and Dutch referendum earthquake still reverberates - concluded with Brexit

On that night I remember a senior European Parliament official telling me that all would be well because the EPP/Socialist machine would never lose its majority. Never
So that is a big change

2004 EPP/Soc had 66% of MEPs
2009 EPP/Soc 60%, halo was slipping. ALDE got 104 MEPs
2014 EPP/Soc 55% with big gains for Eurosceptics populists and nationalists written off as €Z protest
#ep2019 EPP/Soc have just 40% (minus Orban and Romanian S&D)

The Eurosceptics, populists, nationalists and far-right have consolidated the 2014 result to become a fixture (using the brilliant @EuropeElects projections which are less rigid and capture movement)*.

In 2014: ENF 37, ECR 70 EFDD 48 = 155
In 2019, ENF 74, Brexit 29, M5S 17, ECR 57 = 177
Comparison is not really there to literally show the dreaded “surge”. But certainly entrenched

You could include Hungary’s 13 Fidesz MEPs given its PM is routinely denounced as an autocratic populist who has been suspended from EPP and is pally with the League and PiS

In France, Macron’s realignment and destruction of the French Socialists and Gaullists (parties with proud histories) has failed to stop Le Pen in her tracks (even if she didn’t do was well as she wanted)

Germany is a mess. It’s cautionary tale for coalition partners. Merkel’s effect on the once proud SPD has been like Macronite on the French PS. CDU is hurting too and in-house coups my be in the offing...

In Italy, Salvini who casts more of shadow then a lightweight centrist like Renzi is breaking the mould. The unpleasant Vlaams Belang seem to benefited from his rebranding

PiS and Orban have not yet felt the curse of disapproval from Timmermans or Verhofstadt. In fact they seem to be prospering

The Brexit Party is a phenomenon, like it or not. The Lib Dem result is actually more disruptive for the EU as it skews the coalition process in the EP, accounting for over 14% of Macron/Verhof’s “Renaissance”

Before sorting the top jobs the EP mosts likely needs four party coalition (to create Brexit-proof majority). See @Mehreenkhn

https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1132914927067381760

Coalitions aren’t easy. Dutch style they unleash cascading fragmentation. In Germany they slowly suck the life out of once strong parties and poison the well

It is likely according to senior officials that Juncker will have his mandate extended as late as March next year while the wrangling goes on

It is likely according to senior officials that Juncker will have his mandate extended as late as March next year while the wrangling goes on

https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1132957518215491584

That mandate extensionmight well become the next Brexit deadline day - if UK requests a short technical extension like last time only to get a rather longer period
Interesting times