Thread by @jonworth

Much of the supposed analysis of the Tory leadership race, and the statements from the candidates, are horribly confused and confusing.

I think this is because we are asking the wrong question.

We are asking:
"Who will be the next Tory leader?"

But the actual question is:
"What will the Tory Party be in future?"

There are three answers to the Q what the Tory Party will be.

1️⃣ It is the Tory Party - a centre-right party with notions of economic prudence, pro-business etc.

2️⃣ It seeks to be the Brexit Party - delivering Brexit, and doing so as soon as possible by whatever means available

or

3️⃣ It thinks it can be both the old Tory Party *AND* the Brexit Party, simultaneously

Assign the candidates running to these 3 categories and it all makes sense.

Hancock and Stewart are in category 1️⃣ - it is back to the roots Tory values, and doing Brexit with a deal. General Election is not an option.

Johnson, Raab and McVey are in category 2️⃣ - they promise no Brexit delay, want Brexit with a deal harder than what's on the table, but will do No Deal if necessary, and out by 31 October. They'll also contemplate a General Election.

The others - notably Javid, Hunt, Brady and Malthouse - are in 3️⃣. They make horrid contortions about how No Deal would be undesirable but the UK would do well out of it. And that at the same time an election would be a bad idea.

There are plenty of 🦄 in category 3️⃣ too - "alternative arrangements" and the "Malthouse compromise" - to gloss over the cracks.

Javid & Hunt are ex-Remain people who would naturally be in the same camp as Hancock and Stewart, but tack towards the more hardline Tory members.

Ultimately only 1️⃣ and 2️⃣ are coherent positions.

But the membership of the Tory Party has moved on, and the #EP2019 result with Farage topping the poll means pragmatism is in short supply.

Can one of the candidates in category 3️⃣ contort themselves enough to win? I doubt it.

There are limits to this of course.

I have not included Gove or Norman here. I do not know quite what Gove is trying to do - he is definitely not stupid and I think will not promise things he cannot do.

But before commenting on the Tory leadership race, ask yourself the question:

What will the Tory Party be in future?

Then it will make more sense.

/ends