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Results of Euro elections will have significant impact on both Tories & Labour. But in short term, the most dramatic impact will be felt in the Tory leadership race 1/
1) @Nigel_Farage triumph is good news for @BorisJohnson, who is the man to beat, the agenda-setter and early front-runner & our basecase for PM (If not, then we think @DominicRaab, followed by @michaelgove then @Jeremy_Hunt) 2/
2) Farage’s call for a no-deal exit in October will push the Tories’ centre of gravity towards that outcome. It will be harder for candidates such as Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, Jeremy Hunt and Rory Stewart to make case for a negotiated deal 3/
3) It will also be very difficult for any candidate to argue for an extension to Article 50 beyond 31 Oct, which now becomes a hard deadline, even though EU would likely allow UK (at least) one further delay—see my earlier threads from Bxl & Berlin 4/
Beyond leadership race, message of Euro elections is that Tories cannot risk another meeting with voters until they have delivered #Brexit. So new PM won’t voluntarily seek a general election. But real threat of one being imposed by Commons could steer them towards a ref 5/
Johnson allies are dismissing idea he could seek a mandate for no-deal in referendum. That would not play well with Tory members now and so is unlikely to be mentioned by any candidate during leadership contest. But circumstances could change once the new leader takes power 6/
In terms of no deal—alliance of cross-party MPs that blocked no-deal in run-up to 29 March know it would be harder to repeat under PM determined to leave without a deal. But MPs still believe they would find a way to block it. Some legislation would be needed to prepare for it 7/
& they would have a powerful ally in Bercow. But Commons motions opposing no-deal would not be binding on Govt. So it is far from certain the outcome could be blocked without resort to the nuclear option of Tory MPs backing opposition parties in a vote of no confidence in Govt 8/
Overall we see chances of no-deal, election imposed on Govt, or ref as equally tied at this stage. A lot less likely: A50 extension (with no election/ref); MPs voting to prevent no-deal through revocation & accepted by Govt; or a new PM securing backing for tweaked deal ENDS
