trust me, you'll be fun at parties if you know about them 🎉🎉
(a thread)
Models or simulations that explain the workings of complex systems are seemingly impossible to construct. As a model of a complex system becomes more complete, it becomes less understandable
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonini%27…
Two firms compete to death with no profits gained for each.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_…
Increasing the food available to the prey caused the predator's population to destabilize
Counterintuitive but true. More food/resources can cause prosperity beyond carrying capacity of system, and crash the consuming population en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_o…
Applying pesticide to a pest may end up increasing the abundance of the pest
Yes, pesticides MAY increase pests and it is not just a theoretical dynamical-systems prediction. It has been observed in the wild.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_o…
An alteration to a road network to improve traffic flow actually has the reverse effect and impedes traffic through it
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braess%27…
"an attempt to hide, remove, or censor a piece of information has the unintended consequence of publicizing the information more widely"
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand…
Remember this pic?
"as more roads are built, more traffic consequently fills these roads. Speed gains from some new roads can disappear within months, if not weeks."
i.e., traffic expands to meet the available road space
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis%E2%…
"Why do generations that significantly improve the economic climate seem to generally rear a successor generation that consumes rather than produces?"
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_o…
"countries with an abundance of natural resources (such as fossil fuels and certain minerals), tend to have less economic growth, less democracy, and worse development outcomes than countries with fewer natural resources."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_…
"a situation in which a person can gain by throwing away some of his property"
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Throw_awa…
or why 🇮🇳 India 🇵🇰 Pak have so many scuffs
"when two countries each have nuclear weapons, the probability of a direct war between them greatly decreases, but the probability of minor conflicts between them increases."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability…
Technological efficiency (of energy/resources) INCREASES rate of consumption
So we're misguided in hoping that more efficient tech will solve all our consumption-related problems (of pollution/biodiversity/water)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_pa…
When it comes to complex systems (economics, ecology and human society), DON'T trust your gut instincts. Our linear thinking can't comprehend all feedbacks and interactions in a system
Trust scientific consensus, not politicians/celebrities.