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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I love talking about trade agreements, but perspective is important.

At its most ambitious (100% zero tariffs; ~25% removal non-tariff barriers) TTIP, were it to have happened, was forecast to result in UK GDP being 0.35% bigger than otherwise.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
(I use the TTIP figures because I know everyone loves a conspiracy, but these were produced pre-Brexit and therefore untainted.)
Free trade agreements really don’t do very much to boost aggregate GDP levels. This does not mean, however, that there are not benefits for some businesses or that the average doesn’t disguise bigger sectoral impacts.
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
A big’un! I’m quite looking forward to reading the rules of origin chapter.

“Rollovers” have been an interesting process. No-deal tariff announcement set everything back, as countries decided less to worry about. But now they are genuinely concerned about no-deal, and some see opportunities to steal a march on others. Canada still being very difficult.
Also this. 👇
Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
This is a good idea. It should be accompanied by legislation increasing the time available for foreign students to find post-study work.
I have written about why a restrictive immigration regime is damaging to UK services exports here: cer.eu/insights/restr…
For a slightly more global perspective on why mobility matters, I wrote this piece for @Open2Progress: opennetwork.net/mobility-matte…
Read 4 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
I decided to get a bus from central London to crouch end and I am worried I have made a terrible mistake.
Apparently there is a prison in north London.
Not bad for £1.50 tbf.
Read 3 tweets

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Steve Peers
@StevePeers
A misleading statement that mixes up two different things. The UK, as an EU Member State, applies EU free trade agreements with dozens of countries, and EU preferences for developing countries. The implication that trade between UK/EU would be unaffected if no deal is nonsense.
Here's the original tweet, for those blocked by Redwood. The issue isn't whether you can trade without a free trade agreement, but whether you can trade *as much* without one. Only a charlatan would seek to blur this crucial distinction.
Also: there are no agreed treaties with the EU on aviation and road haulage in the event of no deal Brexit. These are unilateral, time limited, EU measures. Again Redwood lacks the honesty to admit that tariffs and non-tariff barriers would be imposed.
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The latest EU Commission paper on no deal Brexit, with unilateral legislative proposals on some issues, is due soonish. I'll discuss it in a thread starting here. In the meantime, here's my thread on the previous paper & proposals/guidance, from Nov 13th:
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
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Daniel Dale
@ddale8
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

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