Thread by @TheLastRefuge2

1.) The "agreement" with Mexico is a smart move by President Trump. If you worry that Mexico won't take any action, well, don't underestimate the dynamic.

state.gov/u-s-mexico-joi…

2.) Investment flows based on expectation, probability and risk management.

If you don't think Mexico will not follow-up with their end of the bargain; then you are predicting the tariffs will reappear in 90-days.

3.) President Trump has given risk management actuaries the basis for their analysis and investment advice. ==> Trump deferred/suspended tariffs against China based on an agreement. China failed to uphold their end of the terms. The tariffs were implemented.

4.) If you believe Mexico will not adhere to their migration agreement, then by extension you are accepting the tariffs will take effect in 90-days.

5.) Put another way.... President Trump has just given notice to all global business interests to organize their financial affairs toward Mexico within 90 days.

6.) Given the less than stellar follow-through on prior promises by Mexico; and given Trump's prior follow-through on China; those business interests who don't trust the Mexican government to deliver on the new promise will now use the 90-day window to reposition or exit.

7.) Those interests who cannot withdraw (Ex. BMW); or those interests who choose to put their trust in Mexico to deliver (likely against the advice of risk mgmt); will now start a process of engagement w/ Mexico requesting/demanding promises they will follow through.

8.) Don't underestimate the power of dozens of multinational banks and corporations that will now start calling Lopez-Obrador and his ministers demanding assurances; concrete assurances; of their follow-through. This puts massive pressure on Mexico to comply with the agreement.

9.) Failure of the Mexican government to follow-through, isn't as simple as breaking a promise.... [Another broken promise etc. etc.] This time if Mexico doesn't follow-through, and if Trump does follow-through in 90 days, their financial economy will collapse overnight.

10.) This isn't politics; or a broken political promise. No, THIS TIME IT'S *BUSINESS*, high-stakes multi-billion business.

That's the difference with business-centric President Trump in the White House.

He's *not* a politician.

11.) See the leverage President Trump just created?

This is what an apex business predator does to his/her economic or financial adversary. All the responsibility for action is on the other party. If they fail, you win. If they succeed, you win. See how that works?

12.) Now think about Trump's economic policy opposition: U.S. CoC, Tom Donohue, Business Roundtable, Koch Bros., Wall Street multinationals, etc.

Who are they immediately going to start pressuring?

THIS GUY:

13.) Trump's opposition cannot call Trump, and attempt pressure, because: (A) Trump doesn't care about their opinion; and (B) He's given them what they were demanding.

Nope, the pressure for action is no longer on POTUS. 100% of the responsibility is on Mexican President AMLO.

14.) If the issue isn't corrected quickly, in 90-days the tariffs start.... And go read Trump's deal-making history.... He won't start all over again at 5%, he'll start right at the place he would have been in 90-days, 20%.

15.) Now put yourself in the position of a CEO and/or CFO of a multinational corporation with structural investment in Mexico. [Foreign corporations, not just American business interests.] Those who stay will be vested in ensuring Lopez-Obrador follows through.

Economic security is national security.

The 'Trump Doctrine' is primarily using economic strength as leverage to achieve national security objectives.

/END