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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
So in light of some big name backing for Johnson (notably from Steve Baker), and Johnson backing of a "Clean Brexit" (basically the Singham 🦄), I have adjusted my #Brexit diagram - now Series 3, Version 4
The chance Boris gets to 2nd round is now .8 (was .6) - based on this: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

Comments by Raab and others on prorogation of Parliament put up chances pragmatists resign there

And the change all this makes overall? Just +/- 1% in comparison to Version 3!
As ever all the detail - high res images, XML, .ods calculations etc. - on my blog: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

Feedback very welcome - analysis of the odds on each node is especially welcome!

/ends
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Pretty much all the 'analysis' of the Tory leadership election and how it relates to #Brexit is wrong.
This is actually not all a waste of time.

Politics takes the path of least resistance.

Vote a deal, go for No Deal, rescind, call a General Election or hold a 2nd referendum are all *hard*.

Get rid of the leader is the easiest. Like a struggling ⚽️ team sacking its manager.
Why then does anyone take anything any candidate says remotely seriously?

These Tories were not serious when the UK faced a real crisis in March/April.

Why would that *improve* when appealing to 160k predominantly elderly, white, male members who are 3/4 pro-Brexit? It won't.
Read 10 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Thursday evening I was a panellist at a @lseei event in Berlin entitled "Social Media and the Politicisation of European Politics: Curse or Blessing?"

Other panellists were @Kai_Whittaker @ur_echo @kleine_m @lonanglo

Here's LSE's tweet about the event
In this thread I will focus on one of the panellists - @Kai_Whittaker - and what he said at the event, and his social media behaviour afterwards, and what it tells us about the @rezomusik mess the CDU has found itself in.
Kai is a CDU Member of the Bundestag, a LSE alumnus (so ought to be sharp), and is 34 years old.

In terms of the use of digital tools he should be at least as much a digital native as I am.
Read 12 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Lots of misconceptions about the Danish election result circulating on Twitter, not least because of confusing party names and letters.

Here's a simple graph of the result, inc. changes from 2015, with party names translated for an international audience.
And - related to that - the Social Democrats did not *win*. They were the largest party, but their vote share declined. A leftist coalition will probably emerge because other leftist (and pro-immigration) parties did well.
Also what happened to the Danish People's Party is complex - some of its support went further right, and some went to more traditional parties, some of whom copied its policies.

There are no simple conclusions to draw here.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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The Conversation
@ConversationUK
EXCLU: Boris Johnson supporters want no-deal #Brexit, less talk of climate change – new survey of party members reveals.

theconversation.com/0-118633

Thread based on analysis by @ProfTimBale and Prof Paul Webb ⬇️ Views of Tory Party members by first choice of leader
While only around a quarter of the wider British public support leaving the EU without a #Brexit deal, 85% of Johnson’s supporters within the party are keen on a no-deal departure.

66% of Conservative members said the UK should leave without a deal.

theconversation.com/0-118633
2/n
On #climatechange? There are striking attitudinal differences between those who support Johnson and those who support the others.

1 in 5 Tory rank-and-file members would like to see less emphasis.

Rises to 1 in 4 among Johnson supporters.

theconversation.com/0-118633
3/n
Read 5 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Everyone - I mean everyone - connected with Brexit needs to read @CER @sammarclowe's dispassionate piece on the search for alternative arrangements on the Irish border. Its only TWO PAGES. But if you only read ONE SENTENCE it should this (highlighted) 1/
cer.eu/insights/north…
@Cer I have been guilt of getting hot under the collar about the lack of realism on the ground realities of @BorderIrish and the willful ignorance of those what basically don't want these realities to get in the way of a 'clean' #brexit. /2

@Cer @BorderIrish I do understand those frustrations, but the ground realities are as they are.

It is also deeply regrettable that those frustrations are triggering old reflexes on both sides of the Irish Sea. /3
Read 5 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
The basic problem with the Brexit Party is that though leavers may not be thick, their representatives very much are. They have a two dimensional concept of trade and international relations and that is why they are pushing for such a reckless gamble of a #Brexit.
They think trade is just a matter of sorting out tariffs. Explain to them that it involves everything from data adequacy agreements through to maritime surveillance and intellectual property (to name just three of three hundred), you'll be met with a blank stare.
The base assumption is that businesses trade with each other without the intervention of government - but it is through harmonisation that we have erased many of the impediments to trade and created vast new markets on anything from carbon trading to data services.
Read 20 tweets
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Nick Reeves #FinalSayForAll #FBPE
@nickreeves9876
Steve Baker on @BBCNewsnight. This scumbag of an MP called for the EU to be "wholly torn down", supports flat taxes, meaning huge tax cuts for the rich but not for the rest, and was the originator of the idea that resulted in Vote Leave's overspending scam.
#Brexit #PeoplesVote
Here's Steve Baker calling for the EU to be "wholly torn down"
And Steve Baker calling for 'flat taxes', meaning huge tax cuts for the rich, but not for the rest of us. conservativehome.com/platform/2011/…
Read 3 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
A constant refrain from my fellow remainers is name be a #Brexit benefit many devote immense energy writing detailed explanations of trade tarrifs or how the EU works. I am grateful to them as I have learned a lot from them yet we all wonder why it makes so little difference
It seems to me that a better question to leavers is what are you getting out of #Brexit why do you support it in the face of so much evidence that its a terrible idea and I would like to suggest the answer lies in the realms of feeling
We have all seen that #Brexit licenses all kinds of opinions that 1l0 years ago would have been unacceptable but more than that it licences BEHAVIOURS that usually are unacceptable and thus gives many adherents a immense pleasure
Read 25 tweets
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Paul Chaplin #FBPE 🇪🇺
@CottlestonPie
I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets

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