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.@BorisJohnson launches his campaign today to become leader of the Conservative Party. He suggests that even if UK left with no deal, new negotiations with EU27 wd happen in an amicable way. Perhaps, but there will be hurdles along the way. Thread:
1. New mandate: EU27 wd need to give the EU Commission a new mandate, which will be the subject of complex internal talks. EU27 cd demand rigid sequencing (no talking abt trade until money, citizens and possibly Irish border have been resolved). Cd include other issues, like fish
2. New legal basis: art 218 TFEU (and *not* article 50 TEU) wd apply. This means different voting rules. Unlike the withdrawal agreement, *all* EU govs will need to approve the new deal as well MEPs. National and regional parliaments might need to vote too.
3. Which can be messy.. Remember Wallonia's (last-minute) demands for the EU's agreement with Canada? The more actors involved, the more inflexible the EU can be. "Can't really budge here as our position reflects lengthy and complex talks with EU27 gov, EU Parliament, nat parl.."
4. No rush: No guarantee EU27 wd be keen to rush back to negotiating table. Some EU govs worry that this wd encourage anti-EU politicians in their own countries to use similar tactics to put pressure on the EU to change position. END.
