Does that matter? Are they right to be cautious? Where are May/Davis/DexEU on this? Where are the EU? 1/Thread
telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/1…
In Florence speech May made two commitments.
1) No EU member will "pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan" (2014-2020) - so UK pays 2 x €10bn - viz €20bn to fill hole in current EU budget left by Brexit /2
Mrs May did NOT specify what this mean. The EU wants to know.
Given EU emphasis on filling 2014-2020 budget hole, the UK had 1) would be enough for 'sufficient progress'. It wasn't. /3
They say that the Brits should utter just 'one sentence'.
This would be something like: "UK will honour commitments during the period of membership....*including RAL, pensions, contingent liabilities*
Easy-peasy, no? So why doesn't UK say it? 4/
1. The EU does not just want the sentence. They want what @MichelBarnier called an "objective interpretation" of those Florence undertakings.
So it's not just 'a sentence'. UK officials clear it is EU wants to define number in a "narrow band" 5/
UK does NOT see this as fair definition of 'sufficient progress' OR as a good use of €40bn-€60bn 6/
€40-€60bn is a lot to pay for a poor trade deal that favours EU goods over UK services.
Of course, UK can walk at end of A50 and pay nowt, but in real world that's a non choice 7/
cf
bruegel.org/2017/03/divorc…
In short, the UK reckons plenty to haggle over /11
The result is, for now, a political vacuum - the absence of a plan, until the cabinet can agree one. /12
May *did* move in Florence, but EU simply asked for more.
If UK writes *that* sentence, they'll ask again. /13
When Michel Barnier suggested twin-track transition/bill talks in October to ease deadlock, he was told 'no'. /14
The EU is demanding May not so much climbs down, but capitulates entirely.
As I have said, Article 50 gives them that option. /15
The UK may have no choice but to fold. But on these terms, it might not be without drama
/16 ENDS