Thread by @RedTeamScouting

Eight days until the NBA Draft and today we are breaking down PJ Washington.

(thread)

The Kentucky sophomore gained a lot of traction during an Elite Eight run. His all-around skill set seems perfect for a modern NBA big, but will his reliance on his physical skills and his proclivity for back-to-the-basket scoring cost him a high draft spot?

Offense-

Washington has been an efficient scorer this season, both in his natural post up (0.90 ppp, 70th percentile) element and also as a spot up threat (1.11 ppp 85th percentile).

His growth as a scorer is an absolute success story for the predraft process. He went into the 2018 draft looking for advice and was told to expand his game beyond the line, withdrew, and spent the offseason fine tuning his shooting.

He went from a 23.8% shooter on 0.6 attempts per game to a 42.3% shooter on 2.2 attempts. While the expansion of shooting certainly buoys his stock, the willingness to understand and correct a flaw in his game speaks volumes about a young player.

He is most comfortable with his back to the basket in the low post. However, his lack of any advanced footwork or touch around the rim, coupled with the idea that post ups are inefficient by natures, may limit the effectiveness off this game.

He is a solid screener and knows how to make good contact and create separation, however, he is a below the rim presence who won’t be able to space the defense vertically. His improved shooting helps him as a brush action screener, though.

He is also a high-level passer, making good reads and creating open looks for teammates. Some of his offensive resume may not be well-positioned in the NBA, but having the ability to be a ball mover will give him utility.

Defense-

Washington is a mobile big man who projects to be switchable right out of the gate. He has good lateral quickness and positions his hips and feet well to avoid being blown by.

A lot of his defensive resume will be centered on this switchability. Teams who are searching for mobile bigs (the type who can stay on the floor during a playoff series) may find this aspect of his game especially enticing.

But the phrase “small ball five” has been kicked around in regards to Washington. While he does have a solid, muscular frame to battle with most bigs, he lacks explosiveness to truly block or alter shots.

He also needs to improve his recognition and reaction. He is good when engaged on the ball, but tends to miss rotations more and more often as the shot clock winds down. Locking in and learning to continually read and react will be critical to staying on the floor.

Another concern for his part-time center candidacy is his subpar rebounding. He isn’t particularly agile or instinctual when the ball is in the air and can oscillate between boxing out and high pointing the ball.

He will need to nail down a role as a rebounder in order to make this a legitimate option, unless the team who selects him can rebound by committee.

Getting Minutes-

On offense, he needs to do two things to stay on the floor: knock down shots and move the basketball.

The two go hand in hand: proving his shooting wasn’t a fluke will help to create more space for teammates and he is adept at using that space to create open looks for others. Hitting shots off of pick-and-pop screens will be integral to staying on the court.

If he can do those things, he will be given more leeway to experiment with his back-to-the-basket game,

Defensively, he needs to show he can stay in front of smaller players, especially in switches. His strong suite happens to line up well with the direction of big in the NBA, so learning to execute will mean a boost for his minutes.

Riding the Pine-

The offensive issues will rear their ugly head if he can’t get 3pts to fall. Having only basic footwork, a limited array of post moves, and average athleticism may leave him few avenues to being a plus player on offense.

While he has improved substantially as a shooter this season, he still has underlying mechanical issues (a hitch in his follow through) which make transition to the NBA line a less-than-foregone conclusion.

Defensively, he will fall out of the rotation if he can’t stay engaged. His effort when battling for 50/50 balls or corralling contested rebounds is especially noteworthy and his concentration tends to wane on longer possessions.

Making sure he is locked in (and thus less of a liability) is essential to his success.

Good Fits-
Washington has been clocking in around 11th on a lot of mock drafts. He seems to be a popular fit with Minnesota (#11) to replace Taj Gibson and play alongside Karl-Anthony Towns.

Depending on how the Wizards (#9) decide to attack the John Wall situation, he could also do well in their offense as a secondary ball mover to Bradley Beal.

He will be in the same range as a group of other forwards/big such has Jaxson Hayes, Sekou Doumbouya, and Brandon Clarke. Fit is absolutely critical to taking full advantage of these cost-controlled big men, and Washington provides some skills which are hard to replicate.