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Assuming we aren't in recession right now, the current expansion will tie the 1990s expansion for longest in U.S. history. Let's take a look at how housing markets have behaved in this expansion relative to earlier ones
a thread...
a thread...
hold on, wait.
let's back up.
here's a typical chart of U.S. housing starts, with expansions/recession shaded
then, overlaid...
let's back up.
here's a typical chart of U.S. housing starts, with expansions/recession shaded
then, overlaid...
then stripping out all but 1990s expansion and current expansion,
and finally, computing differences since first month of expansion
and finally, computing differences since first month of expansion
got it? good, here we go
Fed Funds Rate
existing single-family home sales
months supply of new homes
months supply existing single-family homes
house prices (second chart normalized so start of expansion =100)
mortgage rates!
and finally (for this thread)
Consumer Confidence, which enters month 120 of expansion at a high level
Consumer Confidence, which enters month 120 of expansion at a high level
and finally (for this thread)
Consumer Confidence, which enters month 120 of expansion at a high level
Consumer Confidence, which enters month 120 of expansion at a high level
overall, the trajectory of this expansion is pretty close to the 1990s expansion
but one key difference is that the level of many housing market indicators were much lower to start this expansion
but one key difference is that the level of many housing market indicators were much lower to start this expansion
oh, okay, one more
This one compares the change in the effective fed funds rate over the 90s expansion and the current one. Can see the zero lower bound keeping fed funds rate unchanged early in expansion
This one compares the change in the effective fed funds rate over the 90s expansion and the current one. Can see the zero lower bound keeping fed funds rate unchanged early in expansion
