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5 tweets,
2 min read
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1/4
A brief thread. It is now 2.5 months after the Indian #ASAT test. How much of the #spacedebris generated is still in orbit, how much is gone?
92 larger debris pieces from the test have been catalogued so far. Half of those are still orbiting today.
A brief thread. It is now 2.5 months after the Indian #ASAT test. How much of the #spacedebris generated is still in orbit, how much is gone?
92 larger debris pieces from the test have been catalogued so far. Half of those are still orbiting today.
2/4
According to the Indian Government forecast at the time of the test, the last debris pieces should have reentered 45 days after the test, i.e. a month ago. The reality is different. 45 days after the test, barely 30% of the tracked larger debris had reentered.
According to the Indian Government forecast at the time of the test, the last debris pieces should have reentered 45 days after the test, i.e. a month ago. The reality is different. 45 days after the test, barely 30% of the tracked larger debris had reentered.
3/4
As mentioned, currently (June 15) some 50% of the larger, tracked debris pieces is still on orbit. This ~50% is in line with the forecast in my analysis here: thediplomat.com/2019/05/why-in…
As mentioned, currently (June 15) some 50% of the larger, tracked debris pieces is still on orbit. This ~50% is in line with the forecast in my analysis here: thediplomat.com/2019/05/why-in…
4/4
Some 5 pieces are currently forecast to be still on orbit by a year after the test. The last one might survive until mid 2021.
Clearly, the Indian government claims were much too optimistic.
Some 5 pieces are currently forecast to be still on orbit by a year after the test. The last one might survive until mid 2021.
Clearly, the Indian government claims were much too optimistic.
Typo Note: "barely 30%" in tweet 2/4 should read: "barely 40%"
