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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The negotiability flaw in all Conservative leadership candidates Brexit plans has been frequently made. The problem that none have a long term vision for UK EU relations less so. In particular that 'FTA' as an answer has serious flaws, even without the border question.
The assumption behind a UK EU FTA is that we get to define the terms, to allow us also similar agreements with the US and China among others. But we don't, we already know this, so for example the EU will want provisions making a US trade deal difficult.
An EU Free Trade Agreement will not be generous on services access, and may not even be entirely tariff free. So it isn't free trade as we have now, which seems to be the general understanding.
So there isn't actually a magical solution if only we could escape the backstop. That would just lead onto the next set of issues needing resolution, first and foremost, how do we maintain existing trade with our own geographical region?
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I'll be as pleased as anyone if more political journalists understand world trade law. What would be even better would be if more politicians understood negotiating realities, namely that the EU is not suddenly going to change their entire approach to Brexit talks
So the The EU have offered us a tariff free deal, called the Withdrawal Agreement. It comes with rules like all EU or indeed global trade agreements. Some of the rules the ERG doesn't like as they'd prevent UK abandoning EU rules for US ones in food. Then on Ireland...
You can write as many reports as you like saying that we have technology to track parcels, the simple truth is that there is currently no solution acceptable to all of those who would need to implement it (governments, communities etc). Perhaps one day, with care...
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Various conversations I've had recently suggest the big battle among Conservative MPs is not the leadership contest but against Brexit reality. This is example one, many including Johnson convinced that "GATT24 is the answer", we can invoke a standstill. Not true obviously...
Example two, there is technology to solve the Irish border. We don't need to dwell long on this @SuellaBraverman article ( brexitcentral.com/the-solutions-…), because there's now a proper neutral study which @hayward_katy explains in her thread

Example three, the UK is ready for no-deal. Tricky one, as there's clearly planning go in in and out of Government. But those doing it know it is not enough, and we can 100% guarantee trade will be affected by a no-deal Brexit - we just don't know how much
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Don't really buy the "UK will be forced back to the negotiating table in the event of no-deal" takes. I suspect the UK would at least for a while go for "very well, alone" instead, particularly where "alone" = with US in particular
On the risks for the UK of those thinking no-deal is not a big deal from @GeorginaEWright instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/eu27-beli…
On the need for leadership candidates to have a Plan B from @SamGyimah - rightly of course, but not convinced that a general election or second referendum will definitely do that, and continue to wonder about what a Citizens Assembly could actually achieve thetimes.co.uk/article/leader…
Read 4 tweets

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Mareike Kleine
@kleine_m
A quick thread on #Brexit, why the UK is not going to go back to normal politics after Brexit, why the worst is yet to come, and the folly of policy-driven (libertarian or socialist #Lexit) Brexits.
To many, Brexit is abt “Taking Back Control,” a legitimate perspective in times of increasing interdependence and growth of int'l institutions. However, the undertone is often that control has been relinquished *without good reason.*
Here’s the political science perspective: The flipside of democratic control, #responsiveness, can be policy instability. If majoritarian decisions can always b overturned, some policies r dysfunctional bc actors won't investments (financial or social) necessary to make it work.
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
Watched the #Brexit proceedings from a distance today.

Beyond all the sound and fury, my main impression from today is that sadly the probability of no deal has risen signficantly, and UK-EU relations are very likely to turn sour.
First, Theresa May has clearly reneged on the deal she negotiated, and lost more trust on the way. If there was one way to prove that a legally binding backstop was necessary, the UK governments walkover its previous commitment ranging back from December 2017 provided one.
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European Briton #FBPE
@EuropeanBriton
Thread 1/15 So you want to cash in big on #Brexit?

Here’s how.

Disclaimer. The following thread does not constitute financial advice. Before making any investment you should consult a professional financial adviser.
Just satire.
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The first thing you need to do is invest it in non-Sterling denominated assets.

@Jacob_Rees_Mogg ‘s firm has a few funds, all investing $8.4billion in such assets, so ask him if you’re not sure.

He knows all about this.
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Jill Rutter
@jillongovt
Govt seems to be paying price for never adjusting to post-election Parliamentary #brexit reality.
PM's aim was to force her preferred outcome (whatever it is) through - rather than test where the votes are
its only on that basis that giving Parliament a "meaningful vote" changes the outcome.. it assumes that her deal was only deliverable with a "meaningless" vote.
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Simon Cox
@SimonFRCox
UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
In which Chloe Westley lies about Vote Leave having a plan and deliberately pretends that no deal does not mean no deal. London #Brexit luvvies are every bit as contemptible as the worst of the anti-democrat remainers.
2. Vote Leave never had a plan. They could never even agree on whether to use Article 50. Later on in the campaign the VL website published their favoured mode of exit, not using A50 and simply repealing the European Communities Act.
3. That's the equivalent of just tearing up the treaties and seeing what happens - making no provisions for trade, or any of the other three hundred areas of economic cooperation including space, maritime surveillance and fishing. ie total collapse of every regulatory system.
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