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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Don't really buy the "UK will be forced back to the negotiating table in the event of no-deal" takes. I suspect the UK would at least for a while go for "very well, alone" instead, particularly where "alone" = with US in particular
On the risks for the UK of those thinking no-deal is not a big deal from @GeorginaEWright instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/eu27-beli…
On the need for leadership candidates to have a Plan B from @SamGyimah - rightly of course, but not convinced that a general election or second referendum will definitely do that, and continue to wonder about what a Citizens Assembly could actually achieve thetimes.co.uk/article/leader…
Above, the debate we should be having. Below, the debate we are having. Or at least @MarinaHyde and @JohnnyMercerUK and a few others piling in - I'm not sure at this moment our capacity for humour at all times is a strength
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I'll be as pleased as anyone if more political journalists understand world trade law. What would be even better would be if more politicians understood negotiating realities, namely that the EU is not suddenly going to change their entire approach to Brexit talks
So the The EU have offered us a tariff free deal, called the Withdrawal Agreement. It comes with rules like all EU or indeed global trade agreements. Some of the rules the ERG doesn't like as they'd prevent UK abandoning EU rules for US ones in food. Then on Ireland...
You can write as many reports as you like saying that we have technology to track parcels, the simple truth is that there is currently no solution acceptable to all of those who would need to implement it (governments, communities etc). Perhaps one day, with care...
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Various conversations I've had recently suggest the big battle among Conservative MPs is not the leadership contest but against Brexit reality. This is example one, many including Johnson convinced that "GATT24 is the answer", we can invoke a standstill. Not true obviously...
Example two, there is technology to solve the Irish border. We don't need to dwell long on this @SuellaBraverman article ( brexitcentral.com/the-solutions-…), because there's now a proper neutral study which @hayward_katy explains in her thread

Example three, the UK is ready for no-deal. Tricky one, as there's clearly planning go in in and out of Government. But those doing it know it is not enough, and we can 100% guarantee trade will be affected by a no-deal Brexit - we just don't know how much
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The negotiability flaw in all Conservative leadership candidates Brexit plans has been frequently made. The problem that none have a long term vision for UK EU relations less so. In particular that 'FTA' as an answer has serious flaws, even without the border question.
The assumption behind a UK EU FTA is that we get to define the terms, to allow us also similar agreements with the US and China among others. But we don't, we already know this, so for example the EU will want provisions making a US trade deal difficult.
An EU Free Trade Agreement will not be generous on services access, and may not even be entirely tariff free. So it isn't free trade as we have now, which seems to be the general understanding.
Read 4 tweets

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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
1/ I agree with David, the idea that a quick deal with the EU could emerge in the wake of No-Deal because a humiliated UK would limp back to the negotiating table is fanciful.

I take his points below, but I would that after No-Deal, it's too late to quickly undo the damage.
2/ The core and central benefit of May's Withdrawal Agreement is the transition period. Two years during which the UK will have withdrawn from the EU but would act and be treated as if it hadn't from a day-to-day trade perspective.
3/ This transition period gives governments, businesses and consumers a grace period to make adjustments and preparations for Brexit, and for negotiations on the future trading relationship.

It is absolutely vital, but can't be added retrospectively after No-Deal.
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Rich Clayton
@richclayton10
This is it. It’s back.

Hertha Berlin.

The FM19 edition.

Like this tweet. Follow this thread for updates. Turn notifications on. Strap yourself in.

It’s going to be emotional.

#claytsfm19
1. #HerthaBegin

An eclectic mix of young talent and ageing stalwarts, Hertha are seen by the media as solid Bundesliga midtablers having finished 10th last season.

#claytsfm19
2. First transfer window will be tricky but vital for moving the club forwards this season. Purse strings are tight with a modest transfer budget of just approx. £7m + sales and the board have imposed strong philosophies to blood youngsters and homegrown talent.

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Lucie.
@Yoongingularity
#Yoonmin AU▪NSFW

》》Lay you down

•When it feels so right
It can never be wrong•

For the 1st time, Jimin tries marijuana at a party, enjoying with his friends.

Until he wakes up naked against his bf's big brother, Min Yoongi. The one he was supposed to meet the same day.
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Forbidden but unstoppable feelings.
Jimin didn’t know why he had agreed to come to this party, which was taking place at someone he didn’t even know, with people he didn’t even know.

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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
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Nigerian Kunle Cole (Hitmankunlecole)
@Mr_kunlecole
If I have time i am going to write an article on why Fayose lost
Ok I have time now ,I am going to briefly highlight factors that led to the failure of PDP in Ekiti.
Peter "The Rock "Fayose as he calls himself, came into political Limelight in 2003 after he defeated the Incumbent Governor Niyi Adebayo in April 2003 by a 51,000 voting margin
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Nicholas 🇬🇧🇪🇺 #FBPE
@njstone9
A thread about Starmer's 'Six Tests', trust and what happens in the event of Labour successfully voting down the Withdrawal Bill this autumn. 👇
Firstly, it's important to be clear at the outset: like jumping off a cliff ensures you hit the ground, barring some kind of unforeseen miracle, Brexit is going to occur at the end of March 2019.

If the Withdrawal Bill is rejected this autumn, Brexit is still the default end.
Now let's talk about the tests themselves. Here they are in all their simplistic glory:
Read 47 tweets

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