Thread by @JimRosicaFL

Revenue Estimating Conference is beginning, starting with Lottery warning label bill carried over from last time. #FlaPol

Gina Ballard, the @floridalottery's chief accountant, sticks by a best case/worst case scenario for losses caused by having to put warning labels on lottery tickets/promo material. Those numbers are... #FlaPol

@floridalottery ... $24 million low estimate loss for the trademarked games like "Wheel of Fortune." Some players may stop buying scratch off tickets altogether bc of their "brand loyalty," Ballard says. #FlaPol

@floridalottery For comparison, the $24 mil represents 1.3 percent of the Educational Enhancement Trust Fund that goes toward education in Fla.
#FlaPol

@floridalottery Ballard again says vendors who sell lottery products oppose warning labels. They may decide to stop selling lottery tickets altogether, explains they don't want to put up the promo signs (that will also have gambling warnings). #FlaPol

@floridalottery There are 1650 stores selling tickets representing $1.2B in sales, Ballard says. Looks like a total lowball loss of $79.4M. She says the @floridalottery's estimates are "very reasonable." (REC members expressed skepticism last week.) #FlaPol

@floridalottery Ballard also again mentions a cost for tickets to be "re-sized" to fit warnings on scratch off tickets: "We just don't feel there's another way to do that," otherwise will be compromising "playability" and security. #FlaPol

@floridalottery Amy Baker again brings up issue of bill that failed this year that would have raised legal age of smoking to 21. Cigarettes have warning labels, too, she says. "These are not dire messages," she says. #FlaPol

@floridalottery For the record: The two warnings in question are:
— ‘WARNING: LOTTERY GAMES MAY BE ADDICTIVE’
— ‘PLAY RESPONSIBLY'
Baker: "If it does change behavior, it would be focused on new players...", not the lottery playing veterans.
#FlaPol

@floridalottery "I'm having a hard time getting from these two messages to a $45M impact," Baker says.

On the contrary, the new labels are "going to stigmatize, going to alienate established players," Ballard counters.

#FlaPol

@floridalottery Jake Felder, the @floridalottery's Director Of Legislative Affairs, tells panel that comparing cigarette warnings and these lottery warnings are not a correct comparison. #FlaPol

@floridalottery Don Langston asks what evidence @floridalottery has that trademark holders (Monopoly, Pac-Man) will pull out of offering their names on games. Ballard just says they told her they didn't "want warning labels associated with their brands." #FlaPol

@floridalottery Noting again that the bill that mandates these warnings (HB 629) still has not been sent to @GovRonDeSantis for review and instead remains with the House. Once Gov. gets it, he must act in 15 days; else bill becomes law w/o his action. #FlaPol

@floridalottery @GovRonDeSantis "If the Monopoly game goes away, there will be other games to replace" it, the House's Don Langston says, but adds that people who only play Monopoly scratch-offs may stop playing altogether. #FlaPol

@floridalottery @GovRonDeSantis Aside: "You gotta keep people entertained," says the Senate's Jose Diez-Arguelles. #FlaPol

@floridalottery @GovRonDeSantis Amy Baker pushes back against Lottery, says officials will be proactive, not throw their hands up and say, "we're doomed." Suggests they will come up with counterstrategies to fight $100M loss in sales, for instance. #FlaPol

"I think the player response to this is gonna be pretty small ... you have people that play the Lottery and people that don't," Diez-Arguelles says.
...He plays the lottery and would do so even if a ticket had a red-letter warning, "Don't do it, Jose!"
#FlaPol

(Panel now is taking a 10 min break.)

Meeting has resumed. Langston says "whatever the number is ... it's pretty small. I don't have a problem (assuming a 2.5% decrease)." As to trademark game losses, "we just don't know...could be zero, could be significant. It's indeterminate." #FlaPol

Based on numbers on screen at meeting, @floridalottery also thinks it will lose $56.3M on Powerball, $61.6M on Mega Millions. #FlaPol

@floridalottery Spreadsheet shows a 2.5 percent hit overall would translate into a $45.2M loss to the EETF.
Panel is leaning on deciding that a lot of this is "indeterminate," i.e., can't put a reliable price tag on it.
Quote: "I think it damages their brand," Azar says.
#FlaPol

@floridalottery He adds, "I hope that Monopoly stays, but I can't say that for sure ... Given what they have said to the department, it looks like they are going to leave."
#FlaPol

@floridalottery Amy Baker asks whether @floridalottery has anything in writing from trademark game owners that they will pull out of Florida if warnings become law.

Jake Felder, the chief in-house lobbyist, doesn't directly answer.

#FlaPol

@floridalottery Hmm. There's a rift between Governor's Office and legislative principals on agreeing on the numbers, what's "indeterminate," what's more likely to happen, etc.
#FlaPol

@floridalottery Looks like the conference will NOT reach consensus on bill's financial impact bc of Gov's Office dissent.
"I think three of us were able to reach consensus," Baker adds, referring to her, Langston and Diez-Arguelles.
#FlaPol

@floridalottery Baker: The bill "will not be listed among the measures affecting revenue bc there was nothing to list."
...More discussion, now it sounds like it will be put in a "note" somewhere. (Langston wants it noted for record-keeping purposes.) #FlaPol

@floridalottery That decision will be put off till another time, maybe next week. And we're done. #FlaPol

@floridalottery @threadreaderapp unroll