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3/Border apprehensions are way up compared to 2014, which was the last "border crisis". This one is almost twice as big. 
4/Basically, a ton of families from Central America - Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador - are coming through Mexico and asking for asylum at the U.S. border.
5/In the short term, there are plenty of things we can do to avoid confining millions of migrants in squalid camps.
1. rand.org/blog/2019/05/c…
2. migrationpolicy.org/news/wall-cann…
3. migrationpolicy.org/news/policy-so…
1. rand.org/blog/2019/05/c…
2. migrationpolicy.org/news/wall-cann…
3. migrationpolicy.org/news/policy-so…
6/But in the long term, the only way Central Americans are going to stop flooding our asylum system is if Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador become less poor.
7/There's an obvious precedent for this: Mexico.
13 years ago, unauthorized Mexican immigrants were pouring into the United States. But for the past 12 years, they've been going back.
13 years ago, unauthorized Mexican immigrants were pouring into the United States. But for the past 12 years, they've been going back.
8/The number of Mexicans crossing the border has dropped by over 90%.
9/Why did the Mexicans stop coming?
Not because Mexico is a safe place - the Drug War is still claiming tens of thousands of lives per year.
It's because of the economy. It's because Mexican living standards rose.
Not because Mexico is a safe place - the Drug War is still claiming tens of thousands of lives per year.
It's because of the economy. It's because Mexican living standards rose.
10/But the small Central American countries to the south of Mexico are still poor.
Check out the difference!
Check out the difference!
11/In general, when countries get richer than $8000/person (PPP), migration pressure tends to drop.
ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf
ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf
12/So Guatemala and El Salvador are right at the point where, if their economies keep growing, they'll stop sending out waves of poor migrants looking for work.
(Honduras will take a little longer.)
(Honduras will take a little longer.)
13/So what we should be doing is boosting the economies of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras through investment and trade!
14/Unfortunately, Trump is doing pretty much the opposite.
Slamming the Central American countries is going to make the border crisis worse.
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Slamming the Central American countries is going to make the border crisis worse.
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
15/If you want to fix the border crisis, fix Central America.
It's not actually that hard to do.
(end)
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
It's not actually that hard to do.
(end)
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
