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Thread/ The incredible rise, and fall, and rise of Boris Johnson. YouGov’s @chriscurtis94 demonstrates how the belief that Johnson’s rise to the top has been somehow inevitable is a false narrative thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
As of late last week, 74% of Tory members would vote for Johnson and only 26% for Hunt. But he hasn't always held such a nominating lead over his opponents, and more recently than you might think thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
Casting back to the 2016 leadership contest, before he pulled out we had Johnson losing to Theresa May by an 18 point margin thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
In fact, while 83% of Tory members had a positive view of Johnson just prior to his decision to back Leave in 2016, within weeks of the conclusion of the referendum campaign this had fallen to 50% thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
As recently as July 2018 Conservative members were completely split on whether Johnson would make a good leader (47%) or a poor one (48%) thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
So what’s changed since then? Well, he has made key strides in areas in which he used to lag behind his rivals: “up to the job” (+10 among party members since July 2018), “competent” (+11), “strong leader” (+12) and “can win a general election” (+13) thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
The issue of Brexit is now centre-stage, where before it was expected to have been resolved, giving Johnson an advantage. Firstly, since the EU referendum the proportion of Conservative members who are Leave voters has risen from 63% to 71% now thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
Secondly, party members also see Johnson as the candidate most likely to take the path on Brexit that they themselves want. 59% want a renegotiation attempt but a no-deal Brexit if it fails – 71% believe that is what Johnson will do thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
Likewise, while 87% of party members think that Johnson will bring Britain out of the EU on or before 31 October, just 23% believe the same of Hunt thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/t…
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