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Will there be a confidence vote before the summer recess
Quick thread on why there might not be ... and it could be delayed until the Autumn
Quick thread on why there might not be ... and it could be delayed until the Autumn
1. There is a broad understanding in Whitehall - from Cabinet Secretary Sir Mark Sedwill down - that there will be an *opportunity* for a vote of no confidence in the new PM before the summer recess.
This does not mean it will necessarily happen
This does not mean it will necessarily happen
2. Potentially Theresa May will do her last PMQs on Wednesday July 24, then go to the Queen to recommend a successor. However this is not set in stone, and it will be for CCHQ to sort with the candidates
IE the new PM *might* still end up doing PMQs that day if they want
IE the new PM *might* still end up doing PMQs that day if they want
3. I’m told there’s an understanding the new PM will “face” the Commons before the recess tho it’s very unclear what form this will take
Recess starts Thur July 25 under dates on order paper today to be approved today
parliament.uk/about/faqs/hou…
Recess starts Thur July 25 under dates on order paper today to be approved today
parliament.uk/about/faqs/hou…
4. It will then be for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour leadership to decide if they want to force a no confidence vote then - potentially Thur July 25 - or wait until September
Why might they? They’ll potentially have momentum
Why might they not? They might lose
Why might they? They’ll potentially have momentum
Why might they not? They might lose
5. Would the new PM lose a vote of no confidence?
By July, even with the DUP the government will likely have a majority of 3
A number of Tory MPs - Dominic Grieve, Guto Bebb - have threatened / hinted they might not support incoming Tory gvt in vote of no confidence
BUT
By July, even with the DUP the government will likely have a majority of 3
A number of Tory MPs - Dominic Grieve, Guto Bebb - have threatened / hinted they might not support incoming Tory gvt in vote of no confidence
BUT
6. There are 22 independent / Change MPs who might decline to vote no confidence in the new administration.
They are likely to lose their seats. Some did not vote no confidence last time. Some might, some might not but makes the maths of a no confidence vote hard to predict
They are likely to lose their seats. Some did not vote no confidence last time. Some might, some might not but makes the maths of a no confidence vote hard to predict
7. Independents / change MPs include:
Boles, Field, Lewis, Austin, Hopkins, Allen, Berger, Woodcock, Ann Coffey, Gapes, Herman, Steven Lloyd, Jared O’Mara, Shuka, Smith, Soubry, C Williamson, Leslie, Woolaston
What will each of them do?
Boles, Field, Lewis, Austin, Hopkins, Allen, Berger, Woodcock, Ann Coffey, Gapes, Herman, Steven Lloyd, Jared O’Mara, Shuka, Smith, Soubry, C Williamson, Leslie, Woolaston
What will each of them do?
8. Perhaps waiting until the (now confirmed) September sitting - when the threat of no deal potentially looks larger and this might focus ni day - be a better tactic for Labour?
Let’s see
Let’s see
