Thread by @benrileysmith

Scorching sun in Miami for the first debates of the Democrat 2020 campaign. Warren, Beto, Booker among the 10 hopefuls up tonight. Biden, Bernie, Harris, Buttigieg in tomorrow’s group.
instagram.com/p/BzL1xhPgP2Z/…

What to watch for...
1) Can anyone land a blow on Biden big enough to substantially close his lead?
2) Can any of the unknowns breakthrough in chaos of a 10-way debate?
3) The extent to which attacks from the Left trigger applause (+ other indicators from the audience)
4) Gaffes

For a sense of how long + by how far Biden’s been leading in the polls, here’s a running average from Real Clear Politics stretching back the last 6 months.

But...

...two big qualifiers to that lead.

1) National polls largely redundant when it comes to the primaries. State polls based on the order of votes (Iowa, then New Hampshire, then Nevada, the S Carolina etc) much more significant for how race will play out.

2) As @LarrySabato told Telegraph this week, hovering around 30% is actually not great for Biden. Given total name recognition the fact 2 in 3 Democrat voters want to go elsewhere this early in the race doesn’t bode that well for him.

All eyes on whether Biden (whose pitch is ‘I’m best placed to beat Trump’ + more centrist policy platform + need to work across the aisle + continuation Obama) will come under sustained attack.

We took a brief look in today’s @Telegraph...

For those just tuning in this Daily episode is a v good place to start.

One key diving line is between candidates who want to tear down the current structures (Sanders, Warren the outliers) and those who want to reform within them (Biden).
nytimes.com/2019/06/26/pod…

Joe Biden’s lead over second place in early Democrat primary states

IOWA: +5.6 %points
NEW HAMPSHIRE: +13
NEVADA: +13
S CAROLINA: +27.5
CALIFORNIA: +6.5
TEXAS: +7.6
MASSACHUSETTS: +6.5

Generally much lower than his national lead.

(Source: @RealClearNews poll averages)