, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Devil's advocate: as Biden plummets, Sanders maxes out, Buttigieg gets 2% of black voters⁠—a non-starter⁠—and Gabbard remains off-grid policy-wise, are the real leaders Warren, Harris, O'Rourke, Booker?

Three of them debate tonight. Maybe media got wrong which night is bigger?
1/ I'm not supporting any candidate here, nor writing off anyone. I'm just observing the significance of having support among the African American community as a Democratic primary candidate; the fact that Biden hasn't had a "good day" yet; and that Bernie seems to have a "cap."
2/ I also think, as a political observer not as someone who has a candidate preference, that the media was too quick to say that the second night was a bigger deal than the first. It's *so* early. There's every reason to think Booker and O'rourke have *substantial* room to climb.
3/ Finally, I'd note that this "devil's advocate/medium-term" "real frontrunners" theory of the Democratic field also posits two entirely *plausible* 2020 Democratic tickets: Warren/Booker and Harris/O'Rourke (we won't see Warren/Harris or Harris/Booker for strategic reasons).
4/ And of course both nights feature people who could have breakouts, at least *as compared to* where they're currently polling, with tonight's most likely candidates being Castro, De Blasio and Klobuchar (probably in that order). A bit harder to see any "second night" breakouts.
5/ In any event, I'll say again that I think in the medium- and long-term there may end up being more significance to tonight's debate than tomorrow night's. Not a view we're really hearing in the media, but I think the media is somewhat foolishly working *exclusively* off polls.
PS/ To be clear, in the short-term there's no denying that Biden and Bernie are doing well and even in the medium-term you have to think Biden and Bernie are likely have an 8% to 12% "floor" that Beto and Booker haven't hit yet. I was trying to imagine the narrative in late fall.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Seth Abramson
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!