Thread by @TimInHonolulu

1. On #DPRK: If you looked at my Twitter posts you will see several alarming calls for action going back to the early #Obama administration. I won't repeat them but after the launch of the DPRK ICBM, I observed subtle signs that we were preparing a preemptive strike.

2. Allowing Tokyo, Guam or Hawaii to be in range of a Korean first strike was bad, but the ICBM that I believe was powered by a Russian SS-18 (Satan) R-36 motor, was the last straw because it put DC in range. I had a suspicion that Mattis had gotten SLBM authority for

3. US launches and Russia and China may have even been advised to not consider the plumes an attack on them. I think the idea of killing several tens of millions of North Koreans was too much for Trump and that's what prompted his bizarre conduct leading to today.

4. If I'm right it's a lesson for Iran. Once you have a bomb miniaturized and ICBM with the capability to shoot at us, assuming you have made threats like DPRK and IRAN, IMO, it is long time US policy to strike preemptively and overwhelmingly.

5. We may have intelligence that Kim is having domestic concerns that required him to show his generals something concrete.

Trump has mentioned several times how close to war were were. What he said was consistent with my contemporaneous analysis.