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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
"... three ways book value understates corporate assets: (1) by understating the value of intangibles, (2) by understating the value of long-term assets such as real estate, and (3) by punishing companies that deploy large amounts of income into share buybacks."
The intellectual rigor in this Livermore post is impressive.

"...respected value investors frequently emphasize: free-cash-flow (FCF) is better than other fundamentals in the measurement of value. I’m going to test that conclusion in the factor space..."

Be prepared to think.
Livermore points out: value as a statistical factor in an index fund ≠ value as an analytical, but the importance of cash for both is key.

"*Expected* long-term cash flows, discounted by the cost of capital—not reported earnings—determine stock prices." expectationsinvesting.com/pdf/earnings.p…
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More from @trengriffin see all

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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Everyone knows that you make up the negative yield with volume!

"Negative-yielding debt topped $13 trillion in June, having doubled since December, and now makes up around 25% of global debt. In Germany, 85% of the government bond market is under water." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"Japan’s bond yields are too low to cover the cost of servicing the Japan Postal bank’s funds, a cost that S&P estimates at 0.57%." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
news.google.com/articles/CBMia… There is also about $600 billion of negative yielding corporate debt.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
25iQuiz: Ericsson: "By the end of 2024 5G subscriptions will reach 1.9B, 35% of traffic will be carried by 5G networks and up to 65% of the global population could be covered."
ericsson.com/en/mobility-re…

Since Ericsson is talking their book, how much windage should be applied?
Assume a miracle happens and exactly 65% of mobile subscribers globally based on population are covered by terrestrial 5G by the end of 2024. What percentage of that 5G footprint is:

1. Low band?
2. Mid-band?
3. High band?

What will that be as a percent of the earth's surface?
Once a high band (e.g., Ku or Ka) broadband non-geostationary polar orbit satellite constellation is operable with global coverage, 5G will be available everywhere since modern systems will use New Radio technology. Terminal and service cost (TCO) becomes the key issue.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
People forget that wireless customers paid a monthly fee and also paid usage and long distance charges. The average cost of a three-minute long distance call in 1984 was $1.28. People often kept their phones turned off most of the time to avoid costs. Calls dropped regularly.
"Cellular users pay carriers a $45-per-month access fee, plus 45 cents a minute for weekday calls and 27 cents a minute for calls at night and on weekends. Rates apply whether a customer made or received the call. The average bill runs about $150 a month." google.com/amp/s/www.lati…
Mobile phone service charges in the previous tweet were from 1987.

In 1991: "McCaw Cellular launched the North American Cellular Network, a move toward a national network of cellular telephones."

The "Digital One Rate" arrived in the very late 1990s wsj.com/articles/SB931…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Spencer Bogart
@CremeDeLaCrypto
Sharing a comment letter I wrote to the SEC regarding questions and concerns around Bitcoin’s Value.

“Examining Bitcoin’s Valued Attributes”

The content is on Medium here: medium.com/@Bitcom21/exam…

The letter can also be viewed directly: sec.gov/comments/sr-ny…

Summarized below
2/ Before diving into Bitcoin’s valued attributes, I offered a quantification of the market for store-of-value assets (beyond gold)

Gold: $9T
High-end art & collectibles: ~$4T
Real Estate: $175T (of which *at least* $9T is attributable to utility as store-of-value)
3/ The common thread between all these assets: scarcity.

With scarcity, holders of these items can rest assured that new supply will not dilute their accumulated wealth.

This capability delivers real utility to hundreds of millions of people.
Read 25 tweets
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Tiho Brkan
@TihoBrkan
1/ People that message me often ask if I am worried about the current fundamentals in the market?

I'm always worried. Sometimes less, sometimes more. However, that doesn't stop me from investing.

Today I want to go through some of the more important worries for me. Let's start.
2/ There are plenty of things that could worry investors, that is why they say the market climbs a wall of worry all the way up.

When those worries disappear for the most part and the majority is celebrating usually marks a sign a major top is near.
3/ Those are NOT the kind of worries I'm going to be discussing in this week's Marco Weekend Update.

These are going to be more contrarian in nature, where one is potentially anticipating — but not necessary bearish & betting on a turn of events.
Read 36 tweets
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O₿iWan
@ObiWanKenoBit
1/Why does #bitcoin matter? Fiat has distorted nearly every facet of our lives through an economic construct designed to steal wealth and establish a citizenry entirely dependent on the state. Read on ⤵️
2/Today’s money is debt. It’s credit issued and reissued by central and retail banks. Established in 1913, the Federal Reserve set in motion a series of policies which led to eliminating the fiscal constraints of gold backed money.
3/Fully severing the link took 60 years. In 1971 fiat took over and in a matter of 40 years has completely transformed and corrupted money. We are in unprecedented territory.
Read 19 tweets
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🔨Robert Breedlove
@Breedlove22
In the ancient story of money a new chapter is being written… here we will explore the mysterious forces of Money, Bitcoin and Time.

This thread is breakdown of my recently published 3-part essay titled 'Money, Bitcoin and Time':

medium.com/@breedlove22/m…

Let’s go 👇🏽
1. THE SIMPLE TRUTH ABOUT MONEY: Money is the most successful story ever told by humans. It is a reflexive narrative: meaning it has value only because everyone believes it, and everyone believes it because it has value. Money is a story that continues to be written…
2. When humans began to exchange with one another, they intuitively discovered the division of labor which allows people to focus on their relative advantages and concentrate on their chosen craft. This led to the invention of better tools.
Read 476 tweets
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Gaurav Sharma
@Gaurav1105
1/n: LENDING (business) IS NOT A FEATURE.

And yes, distribution of lending/credit products is a ‘feature’ in some platforms/products.

Lending (CREDIT) is a business with many complex moving parts.

#long #fintech #thread #lending
2/n: In fact “Lending (Credit) is older than money and FinTech.” (medium.com/@gaurav.sharma…)

There’re lot of tweets (within the FinTech community in India) about Whether 'lending is a feature' or not? So, let’s unpack that a bit..
3/n: True definition of Lender = Lending Money from own balance-sheet (i.e. skin in the game). The primary revenue here is Interest Income (Net Revenue from Funds), and margins computed basis NIM (Net Interest Margin) and COF (Cost of Funds).
Read 24 tweets
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Patrick OShaughnessy
@patrick_oshag
1/ Book value is an increasingly flawed accounting metric which is creating issues for passive and active investors. This thread highlights research by my colleague @tbfairchild on 1) the problems with using book value and 2) potential solutions which correct the largest issues
2/ Two unusual categories of stocks have emerged.

Stocks with negative book values, and “veiled value” stocks, which are in the most expensive third of the market on p/book, but cheapest third on other metrics.
3/ In 1988, there were only 13 companies with negative equity with a combined market cap of $15B (infl adjusted); now there are 118 worth $843B. There also 258 veiled value stocks representing over $3.9 trillion of market value.
Read 21 tweets

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