Thread by @bascott2010

Interesting thought here: according to our data, the higher ranked team has won roughly 72% of the time over the last decade in the #SEC. That's down from 80% in a study about 5 years ago.

Since expansion (2012) each team has played 56 conference games, and only 5 are above 500.

That's 392 games over 7 seasons, meaning roughly 110 times a lesser ranked team defeated a "more talented" opponent.

Obviously all 5 of Bama's losses are to "less talented" teams, bc they're a top 2 recruiter. The next highest talent recruiter is #UGA, who has lost just 15 times

In the last 7 seasons. Of those 15, every loss except once to #Alabama is a loss to a "less talented" team. So right away, 17% of the "upset losses" are held by the top two recruiters in SEC, bc nearly everyone they play is "less talented" than they are any given Saturday

In the same 7 years, #LSU has lost just 20 SEC games despite being the composite #3 recruiter in the conf over 4 years. Seven of those losses are to better-ranked Alabama. The other 13 are all to lesser-ranked recruiters; 65% of the LSU losses in the past 7 years are "upsets"

Now I realize some of these recruiting numbers fluctuate, but not enough to really move teams substantially up the recruiting board, especially inside the Top 10. The real question is who is winning most of the 110 "upsets" over the last 7 seasons in the SEC?

Let's look at #Hailstate and #OleMiss first. MSU is 28-28 over 7 seasons, tied with South Car for best record among lower recruiters in the SEC in that span. As the league's 10th best recruiter (24.8 comp), the Bulldogs typically face 6 "more talented" teams per year in SEC play

Arkansas and Kentucky being the only two constant opponents MSU plays with a lower talent profile. That means of the 56 games played by MSU, approximately 42 times MSU was the lower recruiter in the match up. #OleMiss sits at #9 in the SEC and 21.2 national composite rankings

In that 28-28 record, #MississippiState has beaten "more talented" teams 15 times, but never Alabama. They lost to "less talented" teams just 3 times, twice to Kentucky and once to Arkansas. That means MSU is 15-25 against "more talented" teams and 13-3 vs "less talented" teams.

#OleMiss is 23-33 in the same time period, and sit a spot ahead of MSU as the 9th best recruiter in the #SEC and 21.2 overall. They face 3 constants that are "less talented" than they are: MSU, Arkansas and Vandy. The #Rebels have 11 wins over "more talented teams in that span

Against "less talented" teams in the same 7 seasons, #OleMiss has lost 11 times. ELEVEN. That includes 4 losses to #Arkansas and 3 losses to #Vanderbilt

The #Rebels are 11-12 against "better teams" but are an astounding 12-11 against "less talented" teams since 2012