Thread by @AlexWardVox

THREAD

I spent weeks speaking with former and current Pentagon, intelligence, and White House officials -- and Middle East/Iran experts -- about what a US-Iran war would look like.

Bottom line: "a nasty, brutal fight" with maybe 100s of 1000s dead. vox.com/world/2019/7/8… /1

Here's how it starts:

Iran wants sanctions off, & may do something violent to make its point. Bombing a US oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz, killing US sailors and/or causing large oil spill, is just one of many ways to do that.

US would likely respond by sinking Iranian ships /2

At this point, warring sides communicate their red lines to each other. The problem is US and Iran don't really talk, making matters worse.

"The greatest risk of a full-blown war comes from one side miscalculating the other’s tolerance” for conflict, says @jasmineelgamal. /3

That means we could see tensions spiral into a full-blown war.

Both sides have different gameplans for that.

US: Overwhelm Iran with so much air and naval power at the start that it surrenders.

Iran: Spread terror and chaos (incl cyber) around the world until US gives up. /4

Keep in mind that all of this is extremely bloody. Thousands to hundreds of thousands could die.

But now US has a choice to make, as experts say Iran is unlikely to surrender because of just air and naval strikes.

Does US invade? And should it try to topple the regime? /5

The logistics of that alone boggle the mind.

Just read that section on its own. /6

And even if US is successful in overthrowing Iran's regime, remember two things:

1) Maybe over a million people die -- including US troops, diplomats, and civilians -- as US military marches toward Tehran.

2) Power centers in Iran will jockey for control, starting civil war. /7

And so US left with horrible choices now:

1) Help rebuild Iran at cost of billions (trillions?) of dollars, years of effort, and many more lives

2) Leave, but leave behind immense chaos in Middle East

As @mwhanna1 told me: “The worst-case scenarios here are quite serious." /8

And, of course, don't forget the millions of refugees headed for nearby nations and Europe to flee violence.

--

It's a good thing, then, that neither Trump nor Iranian leadership say they want war. But situation is on a knife edge, and it doesn't take much to push it off. /9

I left out a lot for the sake of brevity in this thread. To get the full picture, I recommend you spend time reading the whole piece. vox.com/world/2019/7/8… /10

My thanks to the many experts who spoke to me, including @ilangoldenberg, @BrewerEricM, Chris Musselman, and those already mentioned in the thread.

And my thanks to @jenn_ruth for being an awesome editor and making the piece better and sharper, as always. /11x