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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE 🔶
@fascinatorfun
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
No matter how we ask the question, we keep coming to the same predictable conclusion:
The public are divided on how to resolve Brexit - BMG Research...

But #RevokeA50 has the highest NET approval when -be score subtracted from +ve.

bmgresearch.co.uk/brexit-divide/
I think it is fair to say that if you take the #FinalSay+ve scores it is reasonable to assume that all or nearly all support Remain.

I think Remain is looking solid. I don’t think you can assume the same on the Leave options.
But when given less nuanced choices Leave No Deal was the single most popular choice.

Slightly puzzled about the thinking behind this given the outcomes in tweet 2 diagram, that suggests otherwise.
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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE 🔶
@fascinatorfun
Something fishy is going on with the Tory leadership race online

At least 2 of the top 10 accounts either targeting #HastobeHunt or amplifying #BackBoris display Botlike characteristics.

One linked to Iranian/Russian disinformation during the 2016 EU ref wired.co.uk/article/tory-l…
2/
 First created in 2016, @EUVoteLeave23rd pushes a pro-hard Brexit, pro-no deal agenda. It has over 35,000 followers, the identity of its owner is unknown, and its profile image features a Brexit Party rosette overlaid with a Back Boris tag”

Other accounts have been suspended
3/. “It shows that the network it's involved with is quite extensive – it's got 36,000 followers.”

The ISD points out that, ..,the account, had 172 interactions (mostly retweets) with accounts known to be associated with Iranian or Russian state-backed disinformation operations”
Read 6 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE 🔶
@fascinatorfun
When we are public servants we are (sometimes if fortunate, often if not) asked to implement decisions that we might think wise but defensible. EG. A manifesto pledge.

No. No deal Brexit was NOT a manifesto pledge.
2/.

But we might face political decisions that we know are presented as harmless but are looking at evidence that suggests that Government Ministers are lying or, at the minimum, are disguising evidence that suggests the citizens Civil Servants are supposed to serve.
It often is not easy to draw a line between regrettable but reasonable and really seriously misleading and damaging.

Esp so if someone is part of a professional organisation that spells out that to continue or support a course of conduct is a breach of professional standards
Read 5 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE 🔶
@fascinatorfun
“..this is not so much a prophecy as a warning. Nothing in politics is inevitable, even if once things happen they seem so. I am not sure, but I have a half-sense that what is underway at the moment is a growing split amongst even the hard Brexiters.”
⁦ chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-da…
2/ @chrisgreybrexit on top form here.

“It is notable - given he is not only pro-Brexit but also fiercely Atlanticist - that Liam Fox has recently become critical of no-deal Brexit, and has also this week been highly supportive of Darroch.”

Reminders of early flags here.
3/
“It is notable that Simon Fraser, former head of the Foreign Office, has recently argued against the conventional wisdom that no deal is getting more likely and that his view was endorsed by Charles Grant, the astute Director of the Centre for European Reform.”
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU leaders PM speaking to today have little expectation of a breakthrough in the cross-party talks with Jeremy Corbyn ahead of emergency #Brexit summit on Wednesday /1
EU leaders think it good idea to be in contact already now. PM doesn't have a good track record of performing 'on the night' at summits. She just spoke to Dutch PM Rutte. They'll talk again Weds morning before summit starts. Translation: No room for any more misunderstandings /2
EU leaders must come to unanimous conclusion on PM's extension request. But countries are divided. So Belgian PM has asked inner core of Most Affected Nations (affected by #Brexit ) eg Germany France, Netherlands to meet just before summit. An attempt to iron out differences /3
Read 12 tweets
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ooj
@SkidRowRadio_YT
THREAD: right here's what I think is really going on with #Brexit:

May's game is move to a 2nd ref but blame Corbyn by havin all neolib forces pressure him to support it. then rig the vote while scaring us out of 'no deal' which is actually just 'brexit' - what we voted for 1/18
if the Tories adopt:
Lab Customs union deal = they split
No deal = they split
May's deal = they split
A people's vote = the country splits
this has been their plan all along: to forfeit country for party. to steal brexit. they do not want to leave. 'no deal' was a rebranding 2/19
Corbyn knows this & is bluffing May all the way to that cliff edge because actually he's got wings, & the freedom of a clean break will aid his program, free from EU spending caps or investment rules. he's far more willing to push this to the wire than May 3/19
Read 18 tweets
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Ross Atkin
@rossatkin
Really sorry of you aren’t interested in Brexit but, well me, my friends and family have to live it and things are getting pretty fluid right now, so I wanted to pull some facts together about Facebook and the referendum that are worth bearing in mind. Thread! 👇
People like @Anna_Soubry and @ChukaUmunna have been making a good case for @peoplesvote_uk based on the idea that in the original ref people didn’t know what kind of Brexit they were voting for. This makes sense because some people voted leave expecting to stay in SM etc 1/
The problem is the counter argument is also good. The mandate granted to the ref was to decide whether we stayed or left and everyone involved was clear about that at the time. To those with a sense of proportion this isn’t convincing but Brexiteers are people of principle 2/
Read 29 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. The notion we should have a "people's vote" on the #Brexit deal is intellectually bankrupt. There is no possible way it could be an informed decision especially given the timeframe. That's what the remaons are counting on. It's dishonest to the core. (thread)
2. The 2016 referendum was a broader binary question on subordination to what is essentially a supreme government. That is a constitutional matter - basically who governs us and whether the EU makes our laws or not. The public are able to decide that much.
3. But being that most MPs still have no idea what a customs union is, and have no idea what the backstop means in reality, this is simply cannot be reduced to a popular vote. This is the bit we pay our politicians to do. That they do it badly is a separate issue.
Read 12 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) @UKLabour - please think again - your leadership is not what you voted for

thread here following John McDonnell's appalling statement this morning where he said in effect it doesn't matter if Banks carried out illegal activity

@UKLabour 2) I'm not here to beg you to join the LDs or the Greens, but I am here to beg you to do *something*, because I'd argue "fighting from within" Labour isn't working fast enough.

And I admit I am focused on #Brexit, but I also want good, solid, *moral* government afterwards
@UKLabour 3) #Brexit, right now, let's be honest, should be on its a**e
- there's investigations into illegal funding
- the Gov. are a mess
- the leaders are deeply compromised
- 700k marched for a #PeoplesVote
- public opinion is turning
Read 19 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Megathread - Yes, the #Brexit vote is illegitimate, and it's not elitist to say so

Simply put, a vote that is based on misconceptions and illusions but which *cannot* be reversed is an affront to democracy therefore the very concept of the referendum is illegitimate
2) So why was the #Brexit vote illegitimate? Well, broadly speaking:
1) The Brexit we "voted for" ends FoM, the ECJ & payments to EU
2) This will be severely damaging to the economy & jobs
3) If the public was asked today the same question but were told the above,Remain would win
3) Leave simply would not win if the costs of the #Brexit they promised were revealed honestly in a second referendum. The only way they could win is if these costs were obscured again

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Read 13 tweets

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