Thread by @utdarena

THREAD:

With the recent reports linking Nikola Milenković to Manchester United, here is a statistical, comparative thread on the defender with Manchester United defenders from the 2018-19 league season.

Clarification:

A comparison will be made with Victor Lindelöf and Chris Smalling as they are the only two defenders who played more than 1,500 minutes in the Premier League for Manchester United. Also, they were a “go to” pair for a lot of the season due to injuries.

Clarification II:

Nikola Milenkovic played 52% of game time as a right back whilst playing the rest as [mostly] a right centre back and a left centre back. Thus, his numbers will be slightly different in nature.

Thus, take this into account when considering his output.

Firstly, an overview:

Milenkovic is 21-years old and will be 22 in October. In addition, he is 6’5 (195cm) and weighs around 89-90kg. As a consequence, he is a strong defender who can be physically imposing.

This section will detail his defensive prowess:

In 2018-19, Milenkovic performed 7.88 successful defensive actions per 90. This is more than Lindelöf (6.57) and Smalling (6.79). This means Milenkovic is more defensively active than them and is more successful in that regard.

Also, he engaged in 7.49 defensive duels which was more than Lindelöf (6.15) and Smalling (5.92). However, this is mostly due to the fact that he played as a right back and, ergo, had to deal with more offensive threats. This is highlighted in his success rate below:

Milenkovic was successful in 21.8% of duels whereas Lindelöf (26.6%) and Smalling (29.8%) both had a higher success rate. This is due to the fact that there are less facets to negotiate as a centre back than a full back. Consequently, Milenkovic's numbers are lower here.

Milenkovic engaged in 5.29 aerial duels per 90 last season which was more than Lindelöf (3.43) but less than Smalling (6.43). The disappointing part is that Milenkovic, though 6’5, only won 59.6% of aerial duels which was less than Smalling (62.8%).

The Premier League's highest aerial duel success rate for players with more than 1,500 minutes was John Stones with 69.3% followed by Harry Maguire with 67.8%. Here, it is clear to see an area wherein Milenkovic could have done better.

However, we must be just in our analysis. In eight games for Serbia during the season, Milenkovic engaged in 4.49 aerial duels per 90 and was successful in an astounding 86.8%!

It should be noted that he mostly played as a centre back in these games.

Likewise, when he played as a centre back for Fiorentina he boasted a success rate of 66.0%. This would rank him 4th behind Jonny Evans (66.4%). So, it should become clear to you that Milenkovic has the potential to become an excellent defender from an aerial perspective.

Milenkovic averaged 0.61 tackles per 30 opposition possessions (Opp–30). This is more than Lindelöf (0.09) and Smalling (0.36). Though, this can be half-explained as the result of playing as a full back more so than a centre back. Nevertheless, his output was good.

Likewise, Milenkovic boasted a success rate of 78.7% which was slightly less than Lindelöf (80.0%) and Smalling (83.3%). However, with a greater output than both coupled with playing as a full back his numbers will naturally be slightly less.

Therefore, it is completely reasonable to think that he would be an accomplished tackler of the ball as a centre back.

Furthermore, Milenkovic intercepted the ball 7.83 per Opp–30 which was more than both Lindelöf (6.74) and Smalling (6.30). This cannot be reduced to being a full back because, as a centre back, Milenkovic intercepted the ball an incredible 8.79 times per Opp–30!

Context:

This would rank Milenkovic 9th in the Premier League just ahead of Virgil van Dijk (8.60). This highlights Milenkovic's intelligence and willingness to step out of position to retrieve possession.

However, this does come with its risks which must be considered.

One area where Milenkovic can improve significantly is his foul protection. Currently, Milenkovic committed 1.69 fouls per 90 whilst, as a centre back, this rose to 1.96! In comparison, both Lindelöf (0.64) and Smalling (0.86) fouled less.

In addition, Milenkovic averaged 0.23 yellow cards per 90 whilst Lindelöf (0.03) and Smalling (0.04) averaged far less. Even Bailly – noted as “reckless” averaged less yellow cards per 90 with 0.17 in 2017-18. Though, Rojo averaged 0.79 per 90 on only 1.06 tackles…moving on.

This section will detail his ability on the ball:

Milenkovic had a 83.5% passing accuracy which was considerably lower than Lindelöf (91.6%) and Smalling (88.3%). However, his passing accuracy rose to 89.1% when he played as a centre back. Thus, his retention was solid.

Also, he averaged more passes as a centre back with 48.3 per 90 than Lindelöf (45.0) and Smalling (34.1). Thus, he likes the ball at his feet and will play as he sees fit.

“What about forward passes?” I hear you ask...

36.9% of Milenkovic's passes as a centre were forward with a success rate of 80.0%. In comparison, Lindelöf averaged more with 39.5% and a success rate of 86.1% whilst Smalling averaged less with 33.3% and a poor success rate of 74.7%.

So, Milenkovic is good with the ball.

Now, the good part. Milenkovic averaged 8.84 line-breaking passes per 90 whilst Lindelöf (7.40) and Smalling (5.06) averaged much less. This indicates his willingness to pass forward into players who are between lines – a valuable asset.

Also, Milenkovic averaged 1.55 10-Yard Advancement runs per 90 which was much more than Lindelöf (0.90) and Smalling (0.24). So, it is easy to see that Milenkovic has benefitted from playing as a full back as he can equally pass through lines and carry the ball forward himself.

This thread will not consider offensive output as it would be academically unjust to compare a full back and a centre back in that regard specifically. Nevertheless, what has preceded should suffice. Now, time for a summary.

In summary:

Milenkovic, at 21-years old, has massive potential to become an excellent player and, perhaps, a world class centre back. As of now, he is better than Rojo and Smalling whilst he is far more reliable than Jones and Bailly. Also, he tops Lindelöf in many categories.

In conclusion:

There have been conflicting reports regarding his fee but given his age, his flexibility and experience as a centre back and right back and, lastly, his high ceiling, purchasing Nikola Milenkovic will prove to be a worthy investment for Manchester United.

THREAD END.

RTs and likes appreciated.