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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A lot of the "savvy" takes on how Trump using racism/xenophobia will play out politically neglect to mention the rather fundamental point of context that both the Electoral College and (especially) the Senate give disproportionate influence to white, working-class states.
An also-relevant point: It probably did cost the GOP in the House, but Republicans lost most (certainly not all but most) of the losable House seats in 2018, which means there are fewer elected Republicans left with an electoral incentive to speak out against Trump.
Anyway, lotta discussion of this stuff on this week's podcast. fivethirtyeight.com/features/polit…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
That's not accurate. You made a different point. Using several members of Congress as examples, 3 of 4 of whom are nonwhite, you said people from major cities in the Midwest aren't really from the Midwest, and people from major cities in the South aren't really from the South.
p.s. I've never shied away from criticism of NYT, but also said it should be directed at editors and not reporters/writers. This guy @jonathanweisman is their Deputy Washington Editor. That should tell you something. He bears direct responsibility for problems w/ their coverage.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
To me, the most important lessons from Trump winning the GOP primaries are:
1) Don't dismiss racism/xenophobia/nationalism as a motivating force for voters (at least GOP voters)
2) *Don't* be so dismissive of early polling leads (since Trump led in polls from July 2015 onwards)
3) Don't assume that The Party Decides / party elites will save the day
4) Recognize that having disproportionate media attention is a hugely powerful advantage in a multi-candidate field
If you want to add 5) Celebrity in non-politics fields can translate reasonably well to politics, I guess that's fine, but it's not as robust as the others IMO.

But people forget that Trump led in GOP polls wire-to-wire; the question is why people (including me) ignored that.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Just on a very basic level it helps Biden that the four candidates in 2nd-5th in the polls (Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg) are all doing better with liberal Democrats than with moderates.
GaLaXy BrAiN tAkE:
By pushing the field to the left and being dismissive of moderate-ish candidates, Democratic activists are actually helping to clear the field for Biden from potential competition!
See this tweet is blowing up! Check out my podcast, which addressed some of these themes in yesterday's episode: fivethirtyeight.com/features/polit…
Read 3 tweets

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Trump Hotels' website still lists Trump SoHo New York among its properties in the Our Hotels menu. Select its name though to access its page and there's a message about it being renamed

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