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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Btw, don't let the BOK steal the thunder from Bank Indonesia!!! It is like to cut too today & reverse some the aggressive tightening it did in 2018 🤗🇮🇩

🕊️🕊️🕊️🕊️Doves spreading their wings in Asia today as hawks hide given rampant economic weakness 😬
*likely
Indonesia slashed rates by 25bps to 5.75% as expected by everyone🤗, incl @Trinhnomics 🇮🇩🕊️

Real rates are still too tight so this is just the beginning of the easing cycle for Indonesia as it needs looser financial conditions to help w/ growth, esp Jokowi's infrastructure push.
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More from @Trinhnomics see all

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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Good morning🌞 - very hot & hazy today so my usual morning hike was le short & more like a stroll. Anyway, US data overnight was meh & weakened the USD somewhat. In Asia, the morning started w/ a whimper as Japan exports contracted -6.7%YoY in June & imports worsened to -5.2% 😬
Got BOK decision at 9 & consensus is a hold but think it should cut rates & if not a cut now the next meeting is fair play. Indonesia'll commence its easing cycle or shall I say reversal of last yr's excessive tightening due to a hawkish Fed. Jokowi's infra push needs a nudge 🇮🇩!
Asia exports in June %YoY (in USD so some FX impact):
Vietnam 🇻🇳+8.5%🤗
Taiwan 🇹🇼+0.5%🙂
China 🇨🇳 -1.3% 😬
Japan 🇯🇵-6.7% 🥶
Indonesia 🇮🇩-9% 🥶
India 🇮🇳 -9.7% 🥶
Korea 🇰🇷-13.5% 🥶
Singapore NDOX 🇸🇬-17.3% 🥶

Q: Who's most impacted?
Korea and Singapore, both heavy exporters👈🏻
Read 21 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Not sure what happened to my tweet on Singapore lack of shipment (-17.3% for non-oil domestic exports). By country breakdown:
USA +1.5%YoY 😬
EU 28 down -22.1% 🥶
China -15.8% 🥶
EM -17.% 🥶
India -10.8% 🥶
Others -19.1% 🥶

Relatively speaking, US demand stronger so USD strong🤗
In other words, if u look at the drag to Singapore non-oil domestic exports, then u see that the only customer that is GROWING, albeit at a pretty low rate, is the US 🇺🇸 & that is relatively stronger than say the -22.1% contraction of the EU or China's -15.8% or everyone else👈🏻
Remember that the USD is about relative growth of the US vs the rest of the world or more specifically the freely floated guys like EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD etc.

This chart 👇🏻that summarizes manu activity then u see that a US slowdown is still better than a meltdown elsewhere.
Read 3 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
Good morning 🌞 - up early for an exciting Wednesday💪🏻. Okay, overnight:
a) US retail sales slowed but core (exauto, gasoline, good & building materials) jumped to 0.7%!!!
b) JPO says eco solid but leans on external & trade-war to help w/ what markets hope is an “insurance” cut🤞🏻
That said, USD strengthened as rate cut PRICED IN 👈🏻 & guess what? The nightmare before Christmas, or shall I say Brexit is making headlines to weaken sterling & EUR et al as markets price in a HARD BREXIT, well, increasingly. Btw @natixis & @NatixisResearch calls for a HARD 👈🏻
Good should be food 🥘🤗
Read 7 tweets

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Shadi Hamid
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Fascinating and important piece by @krithikaltheory in @foreignpolicy on the role of Islam in #Indonesia's presidential election

Includes some of my thoughts: foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/17/isl…
"The two made an odd pair on the campaign trail, a metalhead and former furniture salesman paired with a 76-year-old cleric. Last weekend, Jokowi held an enormous campaign rally in South Jakarta that was more like a rock concert, which concluded with a stadium-wide mass prayer"
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Thread: A first batch of 31 T-90S/SK tanks arrived to #Vietnam from #Russia, which is the quantity for a battalion. Here are the first leaked pictures. They don't have the side skirts because they were removed for transportation. Much of Vietnam's terrain is good for tank warfare
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@lynnemurphy1
@SarahRubyWrites @jokowi In theory, Indonesia is responsible.
(#IDG=Indo immigration dept)
However, Indonesia is the 3rd country, with #Manus & #Nauru, that Australia pays to use refugees as 'rocks to block the sea'.
Aus pays #IOM to run refugee community housing & 13 detention centres in #Indonesia.
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