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Chris Leslie
@ChrisLeslieMP
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Today’s @obr report on the dangers of a no-deal, no-transition #Brexit should be a massive wake up call to anyone thinking this would be just another political event.
If you doubt this is a cliff edge, these negative statistics paint a pretty stark picture... #obrfiscalrisks
No-deal means £30billion pa black hole from next year+ as tax revenues fall, threatening vital public services. And 12% of GDP onto national debt by 2023. @OBR_UK add: “There is no war-chest or pot of money set aside” and this is a “relatively benign” scenario “compared to some”!
Value of £pound falls 10% because of no-deal weaker competitiveness & inflation rises as a result. An immediate hike in tariff & non-tariff barriers hits UK exports. Pensions are hit by adverse market reaction in equity prices.

Wages & salaries 2.6% lower at the start of 2024..
No-deal drags UK into recession this year as business investment falls 8% and consumer spending is lower. House prices fall 13%. Unemployment rises to over 5%, adding £2bn in extra welfare costs

Real human costs. Real harm done. Yet still some arguing this is price worth paying
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Chris Leslie
@ChrisLeslieMP
The PM told #Marr the Canada trade deal (CETA) & draft US deal gave some hope that UK financial services access could be similar to existing ‘passporting’ rights with EU because “financial services are referenced” in those texts. But those ‘references’ are pretty derisory…
The EU-Canadian deal does not allow financial services firms to ‘do business’ or ‘solicit’ in each other’s territories without licence (Article 13.7.6). There just aren’t the automatic rights to establish business activities that UK currently has across Europe via #Single Market
Trump administration will not allow UK financial services access to American markets because any trade deal done at federal level won’t override local state-by-state licencing, insurance regs, banking licence conditions etc. So UK firms won’t be able to trade freely in the States
Read 5 tweets
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Chris Leslie
@ChrisLeslieMP
Preventing a Brexit disaster - and the austerity this entails - requires more than the #CustomsUnion alone. So here’s a few reasons why Labour’s frontbench must, as a minimum, now also back the #SingleMarket (other than for the famous ‘four freedoms’):
Yes a Customs Union is needed. It helps 20% of our economy. For the other 80% (and growing!) of our economy, which is in ‘services’, we need the Single Market. The right to export UK service expertise is vital.
With 11% of our tax revenues coming from the UK financial services sector (£66bn), we need the Single Market so it can trade on the same basis as financial firms from the other 27 countries. We can’t pay for our NHS, schools, welfare support without this revenue.
Read 12 tweets
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Chris Leslie
@ChrisLeslieMP
If Britain’s leaving the EU, we’ve surely GOT TO know what the replacement trade deal looks like - so we know where we’re heading? Trouble is, this Government’s ‘implementation’ phase is woeful. Putting a plank on the cliff edge doesn’t make the fall easier. #transition #Brexit
Britain really should settle the new trading partnership before ‘exit day’, because leaving without any guarantees expands uncertainty for business & undermines economy. Why are Ministers sanguine about allowing just 6 months to negotiate future relationship? #transition #Brexit
Some hard Brexiteers actively want to dive off the cliff into ‘no deal’. But to see others only now realise that exit in March 2019 inevitably means the UK will be a rule-taker subject to existing EU rules reinforces how little they thought this process through before referendum
Read 6 tweets

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Prof Julia S. 🌍🌱🌹 ClimateAction & FightFascism
@JKSteinberger
Another massive wake-up call on climate, this time from UN extreme poverty & human rights rapporteur @Alston_UNSR
“the enjoyment of all human rights by vast numbers of people is gravely threatened"
gu.com/p/bmbtd/stw
Huge social & economic transformation necessary to preserve climate stability & human rights. Agree 💯.
“the need for the deep social and economic transformation, which almost all observers agree is urgent if climate catastrophe is to be averted”
Activism & advocacy are not optional to get from here to there: they are the only way forward. Timid technocratic policy advice was never sufficient to this challenge, which requires reshaping our power & economic structures completely. Let's get on with it ...
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Promised to build on these initial views with more colour from Brussels. Short thread on EU top jobs and how the EP elex and Europe's new leadership could affect #Brexit
Based on chats, I do now give much greater credence to the view that Germany will seek Weidmann for @ecb. Also think @guyverhofstadt will need to be part of the mix of top jobs - perhaps he, along with @ManfredWeber, will each serve 2.5 years as rotating Presidents of the EP?
Merkel's role is top of mind for senior officials in Bxl. The question here is no longer "could Merkel head to the European Council?" but "is Merkel going to be strong enough to push back against her EPP allies & Weber's Spitz candidacy for the Commission?" Lots of uncertainty
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Helene von Bismarck
@HeleneBismarck
Exceptionalism is an intellectual trap. Not just for the UK, but for the EU27 as well. Thread. (Based on an essay I published in German in the Swiss @RepublikMagazin on 10 April). 1
What are non-Brits to make of the #Brexit drama of the last few months? Is all this just the culmination of a doomed British EU-membership that was always destined to fail? This interpretation is tempting, but ultimately ahistorical and lacking in nuance. 2
Frustrated as many Europeans understandably are with the extent of ignorance and sometimes open hostility towards the EU displayed in the British Brexit debate, this is no excuse for us to base our interpretation of Brexit on stereotypes or a selective reading of history. 3
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. One of the arguments made by remainers during the referendum was that #Brexit would make us "inward looking". The solipsism of the Brexit parliamentary debate, though, suggests that we have never been more politically self-absorbed.
2. If we bother with european politics at all it is only in terms of near-Europe, hyperventilating about French protests or speculating on Merkel. Only when there's a juicy drama do we pay any attention. Adult concerns seldom ever feature.
3. I have of late taken an interest in Eastern European politics. I am by no means an expert - and I'm aware of the many pitfalls, but I sense a growing tension in Ukraine with serious ramifications for Poland and Germany who disagree on a number of issues.
Read 19 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. There was only ever one coherent reason to remain in the EU and that was to stop it becoming the monster it very obviously wants to become. For a time that was a valid basis for being in the EU, but in many respects it didn't work because it went ahead with fiscal union anyway
2. What the UK proved is that we could, to a point, control the pace, but not the destination, and when the EU goes ahead with something, even without us, being in its gravitational orbit we tend to get sucked along with it. To a point that much won't change even after Brexit.
3. We really dodged the bullet by not joining the Euro which would have been a catastrophe for the UK but now the Euro is established, the functioning of the EU and the running of it is increasingly none of our business. We're not in the fast lane of the EU and we dont need to be
Read 23 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
This *may* be of interest. My own personal German based Liam Fox anecdote.

Frankfurt based since 2001 I was invited to a (I’ll keep it unnamed) Anglo-German business meeting in 2017 in which Fox was the guest of honour.
The subject was „the post #brexit UK-German relationship“.
2/ ..should have been home ground for Fox. The majority of attendees were more FDP than CDU (FDP is nearest thing Ger has to a euro-critical low tax Tory party).

Its Frankfurt-all Germans speak English, they may not like #brexit but they distrust „Brussels“ & want a EU-UK deal..
3/ Fox starts well enough saying how theres no sense in building up barriers where none exists btwn UK & Germany & that once „emotion“ of #brexit gone things will be smooth. Ger biz crowd like this - against emotion & barriers in trade sounds good to them

Then it went strange...
Read 10 tweets

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