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Reason why I think an early Italian vote in the fall is unlikely (thread) 1/
Except Lega, nobody has an interest in going to the polls now, because they are all still polling too low. They have an interest in keeping Salvini where is is and hope that the Russian shitstorm intensifies. It's their only chance to erode his margin 2/
So the only one who has an interest in going to the polls NOW to crystallise his advantage is Salvini. This is the reason for all that talk of incomprehensions, lack of faith in partners, and all that bulls**t coming from him at the moment 3/
So how can this happen? Salvini pulling out of the government would mean the government loses ita majority; same trick the Northern League pulled on the first Berlusconi government. BUT it is not that simple... 4/
First, Italy is famous for the invention of the glorious tool of Ribaltone. It indicates an occurrence where the political scene goes topsy turvy and the parliamentary majority changes. If Lega pulls out but an alternative majority can be found that's a Ribaltone 5/
It turns out that within the CURRENT parliament, an alternative would be feasible as PD-M5S. Some of you are old enough to remember that this option was discussed before the Lega-M5S was formed. 6/
And some of you may be into italian politics enough to have noticed that the idea has resurfaced lately. So virtually, you could use that to prevent a government collapse and new elections in case of Lega's withdrawal. BUT this is also not that simple... 7/
PD has literally zero interest to do it now. There could have been a rationale to do it in March last year, to prevent a far right force like Lega to get into government and grow from 17% to 30%+. But today the best strategy for PD is clearly to wait this out. 8/
Also: whatever government comes in, it will have to pass the 2020 budget. 23bn need be found to avoid the VAT hike that otherwise kicks in. If Lega pulls out you can scrap the flat tax budgeted for 2020, but that only saves 7bn. 9/
What opposition party in their right mind would want in on that?? You are right: no one. It is probably the reason why Salvini wants out now, before having to go through the process of the 2020 budget. So PD-M5S is really unlikely at this time (and would be stupid imho) 10/
If that is not an option, then we are back precisely in the same place we were last summer: a political crisis is impending at the crucial time when the budget needs to be voted. Same as last year, Mattarella is unlikely to allow elections in the fall. It is just too risky. 11/
Plus, the Russia gate is a complicating factor! The President may well be sceptical of allowing elections to take place untill the relationship between the party that would very likely win the elections (Lega) and Russian money are not cleared. 12/
Reason why if this gov really falls (unlikely), we're probably in for another Italian classic: the technocratic solution. Put a technocrat in charge of the budget, so we can all blame it on him/her in the next campaign. What could go wrong? Oh wait: that's how we got here! End/
