Thread by @Redistrict

My latest: how Trump could lose by *5 million+* votes and still win reelection (guess @Nate_Cohn and I are thinking alike today). nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…

@Nate_Cohn A big reason: the demographic change fueling Dems' national edge is most robust in the states that matter *the least* in the Electoral College - esp. CA & TX.

@Nate_Cohn The 2020 nominee could expand Clinton's CA margin by 1.2 million votes & slash Trump's TX margin by 800,000 - and still not be rewarded with a single additional Electoral College vote.

But the demographic transformation fueling Dems in those states isn't as present in MI/PA/WI.

@Nate_Cohn Besides CA & TX, the top 15 most rapidly-diversifying states include solidly blue states where Dems might receive millions more useless votes in 2020: CT, MD, MA NJ, NY, OR & WA.

Meanwhile, despite its robust non-white growth, FL's trajectory is favorable to Trump b/c of 1) its above-average Hispanic support for GOP candidates and 2) migration of conservative Midwestern whites to its Gulf Coast - both factors that were on display in 2018.

The one Sun Belt state where robust non-white growth & boom in suburban/young professionals bodes well for Dems in a tight Electoral College race: Arizona.

The six states best-positioned to decide the 2020 outcome are still AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA & WI. But if I really had to narrow it down to the two most likely "tipping point" states, I'd say: Arizona and Wisconsin.