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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A very plausible 2020 scenario Dems have to take seriously:

Trump loses popular vote by ~5 million as Dems narrow deficit in TX, expand lead in CA & flip MI/PA blue

BUT Trump narrowly holds onto AZ, FL, NC & WI and wins reelection by a single electoral vote.
A couple more thoughts on this:

1) Of the states above, AZ & WI strike me as the likeliest to be decisive “tipping point” states
2) FL is trending poorly for Dems & AZ/NC likely to be riper targets
3) If it comes down to one vote, Omaha’s #NE02 more winnable for Dems than #ME02
Here's more or less what this nightmare scenario for Dems looks like in the @FiveThirtyEight Swing-o-Matic (replace Clinton's name w/ whatever Dem you wish): 53eig.ht/21wa4Aw#NCEW:0…
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Beginning to think the CW that "Joe Biden would be such a great general election candidate for Dems if only he could make it past the primaries" might actually have it a bit backwards.
Right now, Biden is the best-positioned candidate in a field of record-breaking size to hit 15% thresholds virtually *everywhere,* which is a really underrated advantage when it comes to building a delegate lead.
He's also got a considerable regional head start in the South, thanks to his huge early advantage with African-American voters (name ID + Obama nostalgia) & because there are no candidates from the region (unless you count TX).
Read 11 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Why the slight shift? Let me try to explain what we've observed move post-Labor Day. There are basically 3 large buckets of House races we're watching...
1) Vulnerable Rs in upscale, suburban, Clinton-won "Whole Foods" districts like #VA10 Comstock, #KS03 Yoder, #CO06 Coffman, #MN03 Paulsen, #CA45 Walters, #NJ07 Lance, etc. These Rs are mostly trailing & their numbers haven't gotten any better recently.
2) Competitive races in redder, working-class districts that Trump won by double digits in '16, such as #IL12 Bost, #MN08 OPEN, #NY22 Tenney, #WV03 OPEN, etc. Overall, things have slightly improved in "Trump zones" for Rs, w/ notable exceptions in districts like #KS02 & #ME02.
Read 5 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
McGrath (D)’s problem is that she’s well past the point of diminishing returns in a market as cheap as Lexington & even risks fatiguing #KY06 voters (see Ossoff, Jon).
By contrast, there are still a lot of races without star candidates that are *underfunded* for Dems. Dems risk leaving a few of them on the table on Election Night.
This is precisely what happened to ‘17 VA Dems, who *underestimated* the wave and failed to adequately fund a bunch of 2nd-tier Dems who fell just short while many of the best-funded won by a mile.
Read 3 tweets

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