Thread by @Usherwood

Brexit: government 'operating on assumption' of no deal, say Gove

theguardian.com/politics/2019/…

Right, this needs a little discussion

1/

Again, a negotiation is about what you can get from an agreement with another party v. what you can get by yourself

2/

Since, by definition, you cannot be sure of that the other party will reach that agreement, you have to proceed on the basis that no agreement is reached and you're left with what you can do by yourself

3/

Therefore, in this case, the UK should always have been working on basis that no-deal was a realistic possibility, and prepared accordingly.

4/

Note: this doesn't mean the uk has to desire no-deal, just that it has to acknowledge it might happen.

This is Gove's position in the article btw

5/

However, this hasn't really been the UK's position so far, at least on the sense of comprehensive planning.

As @pmdfoster has been noting today, there is not the infrastructure to manage or even fully mitigate no-deal, now or by 31 Oct

6/

Contrast this with a French position, at the administrative level, which has always been that the outcome was going to be no-deal, unless a deal was signed and ratified, so companies should prepare accordingly

7/

I'll also note that were back to BATNAs here. The more you prep for no-deal, the less exposed you are, should it happen.

But that boat has largely sailed now

/end