Thread by @pmdfoster

The most interesting part, for me, about this @ShippersUnbound splash is what it says about Team Boris, rather than where the EU/Irish are on #Brexit - it's same old assumption that Merkel or whover is coming to the rescue. Not sure they are. 1/Thread thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/s…

@ShippersUnbound As I think you'll see @simoncoveney say on @AndrewMarr9 #Marr this morning, the Irish are not for turning...and the Coveney Sunday Times piece is pretty clear on that.

It takes a lot to see an "olive branch" in the pledge to use future relationship to do away with backstop /2

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 That is just EU #Brexit boilerplate, it's the same as Merkel said last week about using the Political Declaration to obviate need for the backstop

- so if UK either accepts NI-only backstop,

- or if all UK remained aligned in a way that makes border

...backstop falls. /3

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 As for the Cox meeting with Irish AG, my understanding is that that was on North South co-operation and coroners courts - as one slighly irate Irish officials says "not all meetings between Britisha and Irish ministers are about Brexit" /4

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 But there is one bigger reason to think Ireland won't cave any time soon on the backstop.

@LeoVaradkar is deeply dug in on his position, has an election looming, so WHY would he go back on it when the forces in UK parliament so clearly determined to stop 'no deal'.? /5

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar The short answer (to the quiet frustration of some EU states) is that they wont/can't.

This has led to some westminister-style porkie pies on @LeoVaradkar part about how a border would work in a 'no deal'...he breezes about online checks etc, but it wont work like that. /6

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar The truth is, there will be checks. See @tconnellyRTE piece

rte.ie/news/analysis-…

@LeoVaradkar is playing with fire by not levelling with Irish public on. Just ask in Westiminster what happens when you persistently lie about real options. See... /7

m.email3.telegraph.co.uk/nl/jsp/s.jsp?c…

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE But as I say, for now Dublin remains completely dug in - I don't see or hear the movement Team Boris imagines, and I don't expect to unless/until 'no deal' is on the table, and even then no guarantee @LeoVaradkar moves....but frankly who knows this far out. /8

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE As for the rest of the EU, it is true that diplomats (as you'd expect) are all trying to reach out to team Boris, although it is so factionally divided, they're not sure which bit to talk to.

The significance here, though, is to create space to talk.../9

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE I also hear/know of multiple "secret talks", but you'd expect that in any incoming administration - it's what diplomats do.

The question is whether the desire to roll the pitch to avoid immeidate 'no deal' = desire to move. They may not be the same thing! /10

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE From my conversations, I think that too many in the EU still think they can offer Boris a figleaf/put lipstick on the pig...which is why @BorisJohnson is signalling so hard on 'no deal' to try and advertise that he'll need more. /11

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson But for as long as @BorisJohnson remains so weak in parliamentary terms, and Westminster remains so determined to block 'no deal' then Team Boris (whatever they're spinning in Westminster) shouldn't their breath. /12

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson If @BorisJohnson could show a majority for an acceptably tweaked deal, I wouldn't rule it out.

A senior EU source said to me last week that Boris needs to make a "strategic" choice between ripping up the WA or "surgical changes"...which suggests changes not impossible /13

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson But even then, we've been here before and often, when you drill down, the EU are much less prepared to move on the substance than it appears. This is the "highest common denominator" function of negotiating at 27 v 1. /14

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson But all that is in the future.

For now, this 'optimism' echoes the same blind 'optimism' that you head from Cameron's people in 2015/16 and May's (political) people 2017/19...

It doesn't fill you with confidence. /15

@ShippersUnbound @simoncoveney @AndrewMarr9 @LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson And then you listen to Iain Duncan Smith on #marrshow going the full 'deal is dead' and we can leave with a 'standstill' outside Article 50 etc....and you realise all of this thinking/over-thinking might be a waste of time anyway!!

ENDS/16