,
15 tweets,
5 min read
Read on Twitter
Good morning 🦋- July Malaysia CPI will come out, which is expected to rise due to the base effect but to remain sub 2% and will not be a hurdle for rate cut
Eyes on tomorrow for Korea 2Q GDP & ECB. But Q2 is lagging & July is already telling you that H2 2019 recovery is elusive
Eyes on tomorrow for Korea 2Q GDP & ECB. But Q2 is lagging & July is already telling you that H2 2019 recovery is elusive
*June (July hasn't ended yet)
As expected, the chills on EUR continues w/ Boris Johnson head of Brexit & the UK and the start of the Union without the Kingdom. And so, in response, we got the ECB likely to pave the path for life deeper below zero. The BOE too is likely to follow w/ rate cuts later in the yr.
*continue -
Chart shows EUR losing -4.6% vs USD or USD appreciating vs EUR. On a DXY basis (note that this is roughly 60% EUR & floaters like GBP), the dollar has strengthened 3.3% in 1yr.
When the Fed meets end July, the dollar is a key focus as it is strong & likely to stay there unless..
When the Fed meets end July, the dollar is a key focus as it is strong & likely to stay there unless..
EM vs USD in 1yr shows even a super stronger dollar (DXY is only majors).
Winners: Thai Baht 🇹🇭, Philippine 🇵🇭peso, Indonesian 🇮🇩rupiah, HKD 🇭🇰(obs), Russia 🇷🇺, Vietnamese 🇻🇳Dong and Indian 🇮🇳Rupee👏🏻
Losers: Everyone else, esp Argentina & Turkey
Notice that ASEAN + India do well
Winners: Thai Baht 🇹🇭, Philippine 🇵🇭peso, Indonesian 🇮🇩rupiah, HKD 🇭🇰(obs), Russia 🇷🇺, Vietnamese 🇻🇳Dong and Indian 🇮🇳Rupee👏🏻
Losers: Everyone else, esp Argentina & Turkey
Notice that ASEAN + India do well
Why do they do well?
Repeat after me: DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KING 👑🙇🏻♀️ (esp when u have negative interest rate policy (NIRP) producing a bunch of yield hunting warriors & China slows & the Eurozone slows & Japan slows & rest of EM slows & + trade-war tensions creating some winners
Repeat after me: DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KING 👑🙇🏻♀️ (esp when u have negative interest rate policy (NIRP) producing a bunch of yield hunting warriors & China slows & the Eurozone slows & Japan slows & rest of EM slows & + trade-war tensions creating some winners
DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KING 👑🙇🏻♀️, a demographic illustration 👇🏻
Look at the growth of working age population in ASEAN + India & look how they juxtapose so well w/ the East Asians (and also Europeans) 🤗
Look at the growth of working age population in ASEAN + India & look how they juxtapose so well w/ the East Asians (and also Europeans) 🤗
DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KING 🙇🏻♀️👑, a China story
Working age population declining means wage costs pressure rises & that means the hunt for cheap labor inputs began BEFORE TRADE-WAR & has accelerated since 👇🏻
Working age population declining means wage costs pressure rises & that means the hunt for cheap labor inputs began BEFORE TRADE-WAR & has accelerated since 👇🏻
DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KING 🙇🏻♀️👑, a manufacturing wage cost story (notice that I'm just purely showing costs & not labor productivity etc)
China used to be cheap but now that income has risen wage costs rose massively & now most expensive relative to ASEAN x Singapore & India 👇🏻
China used to be cheap but now that income has risen wage costs rose massively & now most expensive relative to ASEAN x Singapore & India 👇🏻
DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KING, a relocation ranking story.
Sadly for Indonesia & the Philippines, the domestic demand story is still very much domestic & so attracts firms wanting to tap into domestic market & not to arbitrage due to noncompetitive infrastructure, both soft & hard 😬
Sadly for Indonesia & the Philippines, the domestic demand story is still very much domestic & so attracts firms wanting to tap into domestic market & not to arbitrage due to noncompetitive infrastructure, both soft & hard 😬
Rankings show Vietnam top the relocation attractiveness, second is India for labor-intensive, and 3rd is Thailand.
Notice that China remains competitive despite everything at 4th place due to its very strong supply chain & the Philippines and Indonesia have room to improve.
Notice that China remains competitive despite everything at 4th place due to its very strong supply chain & the Philippines and Indonesia have room to improve.
Charts are from a paper published 4 December 2018 on impact of trade-war on EM Asia & we forecast that ASEAN & India will do well w/ a caveat that some ASEAN countries like the Philippines and Indonesia stepping up their game. That said, they will gain from NIRP attracted to PIRP
DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KING 👑🙇🏻♀️, an Indian story & this is an old rap I did following JZ style, yes, I got rhyme w/ mad skillz (rhythm, however, is another story)😬
DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KING🙇🏻♀️👑:
@Trinhnomics said China’s slowdown was dragging on deteriorating investment levels in industries across much of Asia. “The trade war doesn’t help b/c it creates additional stress on China, a traditional growth driver for Asia”
ft.com/content/f067ef…
@Trinhnomics said China’s slowdown was dragging on deteriorating investment levels in industries across much of Asia. “The trade war doesn’t help b/c it creates additional stress on China, a traditional growth driver for Asia”
ft.com/content/f067ef…
