, 10 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
(1/10) Plenty of great stuff being written on #China's new defence white paper but I want to draw attention to one specific table on defence spending included in the Chinese language version. That one table provides more insight into defence spending than we've had since 2013.
(2/10) The key here is that it shows the functional breakdown of Chinese defence spending. It shows how much of the budget is spent on the three categories that make up Chinese military spending: personnel, training and sustainment, and equipment. Here's the table translated.
(3/10) Basically personnel spending covers pay, food, clothing and some pensions expenses. Training and sustainment covers training, consumables like fuel and facilities expenses. Equipment covers R&D, procurement and maintenance of equipment. Full definition from the WP below:
(4/10) This is the key chart. Historically spending on these three functions remained broadly equal at around one third of the budget each. Since 2011 there has been a huge uptick in equipment spending which has risen from and average level of 33% between 1997-2011 to 41% in 2017
(5/10) It reflects a number of factors: Increased focus on technology, accelerating modernisation, increased readiness, and major concurrent R&D projects across all areas. It's also a symptom of shifting force structures (towards air and sea) and moves to reduce personnel costs.
(6/10) In cash terms the WP states China spent $62 billion on equipment in 2017; more than Russia, India or Saudi spent on their entire militaries. Assuming the share of around 40% has been maintained then around $70bn of the 2019 budget will have been dedicated to equipment.
(7/10) It also means the functional composition of the Chinese budget is moving much closer to that of the US. Although a direct comparison is challenging given differing definitions the US spends around 45% of its budget on equipment (34% on procurement and R&D alone)
(8/10) What the WP figures also suggest is that running costs of the military (personnel and sustainment combined) continue to rise at around 7% a year. China's defence budget therefore needs to increase by 4% a year just to keep on top of rising operating costs.
(9/10) It seems unlikely that equipment spending has continued to increase as a share of spending since 2017 as personnel cuts ended that year. However the WP firmly suggests that the PLA is indeed diverting more money towards equipment than at any time in its history.
(10/10) In case you haven't seen the document itself @AndrewSErickson has made both the English and Chinese language versions of the White Paper available at: andrewerickson.com/2019/07/full-t…
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