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Lots of smart people like Peter predicting an autumn GE after Parliament has blocked No Deal. /1
But I wonder if this analysis is a bit inward looking. We can't hold a GE without 'No Dealing' unless the r27 agree to an extension. But would they - and if so on what terms? I'll come back to this. /2
You only get an Autumn General Election after Parliament has ruled out No Deal. But if there is a majority to block No Deal, why would Parliament stop there? Why would it not also require a second referendum? /3
Even if Parliament does the bare minimum and compels Johnson to ask for a further extension, will the EU grant one? Why would it, if it merely lets Johnson run a GE campaign on unobtainable promises? /4
So I think the EU could well end up signalling to Parliament that it can't have an extension, otherwise than for a second referendum.
So Parliament will ultimately have to choose between either No Deal or a Referendum/Revoke. /ENDS
So Parliament will ultimately have to choose between either No Deal or a Referendum/Revoke. /ENDS
