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How can Corbyn get into Downing St at the next election if one comes soon? Here is my thread looking at what needs to change from the 2017 #GeneralElection when #Labour won 262 seats. /1
To become the largest party, Labour needs to gain around 30 seats. It so happens that there are 29 seats where Labour is in 2nd place less than 3 pts behind the incumbent. 21 are held by the #CONSERVATIVES, 7 by the SNP, 1 by #plaidcymru. /2
To get a working majority, Labour needs to gain 61 seats given Sinn Fein don't take their seats. It so happens there are 62 seats where Labour is in 2nd place less than 7 pts behind the incumbent. 45 are held by the Conservatives, 16 by the SNP, 1 by Plaid Cymru /3
Taking seats from the Nationalists probably calls for a different strategy to taking seats from the Conservatives. If Labour wants to get a working majority from the Tories alone, then there are 63 seats where Labour are in 2nd place and less than 12pts behind the Tories. /4
The classic strategy of focusing on marginals gives Labour the following target breakdown. Note Labour is not 2nd in any Lib Dem seat. Note the large number of Conservative-Leave seats that Labour will have to go through to get Corbyn into Downing St. /5 
A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers. If they do this, can they also persuade Nationalist voters at the same time in the 17 Nationalist marginals which all voted Remain in 2016? Unlikely given Nationalists are mostly Remainers. /6
There are limited opportunities for anti-Tory tactical voting in the 63 Conservative marginals. In 55 seats, over 90% voted either Conservative or Labour in 2017. The Conservatives only had an outright majority in 12 of these seats but Labour do need Tory defectors to win. /7
So targeting Conservative marginals will be hard work for Labour. They can become largest party but a working majority requires Labour to target the large number of Conservative Leave voters that would have to be persuaded to switch. /8
The alternative strategy is to target the 86 Conservative-Remain seats. Note I have used my own model of the 2016 Leave vote which is based on the 2015 general elections results (see here for details bit.ly/2OLE51M). These break down as shown here. /9
The problem for Labour with Con-RM seats is that 56 are safe Conservative seats. I define safe to mean either an outright Tory majority or a majority of 15 pts or more. /10
Unfortunately for Labour, there aren't quite enough Con-RM seats for an outright majority (57 in all). In any case, 42 of these are safe and therefore hard nuts to crack especially as many are narrow Remain seats meaning there are large number of leavers present as well. /11
A band of 6 seats in this map perfectly illustrates the issue with a CON-RM strategy. This area includes @theresa_may seat of Maidenhead and makes up a true blue, wealthy commuter belt with significant minority of Leavers. They might vote for Tony Blair but @jeremycorbyn? /12
A CON-RM strategy can make Labour the largest party especially if Nationalists and Lib Dems do their bit as well with the same strategy but I don't see how it gives Labour a working majority. /13
To summarise, Labour can become the largest party with either a Marginal or a Tory-Remain strategy but they target different audiences. Marginals need Con-Leave switchers, Tory-Remain need Con-Remain switchers. Tactical voting will be of limited help with either. /14
For a working majority though, Tory-Remain will hit a brick wall of True Blue, Narrow Remain seats that are unlikely to warm to Corbynomics but could warm to a Blairite party. Marginals is the better strategy for a majority but has to persuade Conservative-Leavers to switch. /15
I am sure Jeremy Corbyn has figured this out. With Labour members and MPs so heavily Remain, the marginals strategy may be hard to sell to them but the Tory-Remain strategy won't give #Labour a working majority. No wonder, he is sitting on the fence for as long as he can! /16
The one other way that Labour can get a majority is if the Tory vote collapses. Unfortunately polls are not showing this. The Conservative lead over Labour has disappeared but Labour are also on a downward trend. /17
As I said recently, when #Brexit dominates the headlines, the Tories lose their lead over Labour but when Brexit slips down the headlines, they open up a small lead (see bit.ly/2zsb6We). An election may hinge on the extent other issues get a look in. /18 ends
For those who want to see the data behind this thread, visit marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk…
