Thread by @gsoh31

Now, where was I? Oh yes, threads earlier talking about v likely #Corbyn #Labour government that failure of MV3 has created. I warn you that I've been to a Bottomless Brunch of Prosecco with some of my cousins, but short thread follows.

Let's start here: even in their best case scenario, #Labour is likely to be in a minority. Evidence is legion that they are going to catch an absolute *tonking* in Scotland, and I'd be surprised if they had held more than one seat there as things stand.

In that situation, LDs, SNP, Green, Plaid will try to hold them to another #EUref. Given c.25-35 Labour rebels, they will need a combined majority of 50-70 to avoid tearing themselves apart over this. That's the first step.

Assuming we're not back at the polls over that, Lab will either campaign against their own New Deal in the EU (hmmm), or for it (unlikely), and either end up Remaining or 'winning' with exit - which would tear Lab (and any C&S agreement) to bits.

At the same time, #Labour will be coming to power unpopular and unloved. Their leader is about as popular as Betamax (which of course he resembles). Their membership is falling fairly quickly. Look at Corbynite social media - reach falling off a cliff (deservedly).

We've not really been in this position before. The Corbynite experiment is over. There isn't going to be a social movement. But they are going to get into Downing St. Can only think of Harold Wilson in 1974, but he was *much* more popular.

So it will be a govt hamstrung from the beginning, but equipped with the Straight Left analysis that has seen it so successfully destabilise the #Conservatives - that a breakthrough cadre should just go for it whatever, pushing over opposition as possible and required.

(NOTE: this is one of the reasons why Soft Left opposition has been so muted. Since Soft Left people are herbivores, they have no conception of what to do when Velociraptor and Spinosaurus break into the enclosure). Anyway.

Their policies are absurd and will fail. Consider my own sector. If they abolish tuition fees without a comprehensive Act and much more funding above and beyond the £11-£13bn they've mentioned, Russell Group HEIs will just fold up and die. Do they know this? It appears not.

Let's look at housing. They want to go from c.186k starts to c250k starts in five years. Given splits now, almost all of that will have to be in public sector. Can it be done, given near-full employment now? No.

Could councils and HAs do it, given their administrative capacity and likely snap back into funding? I very much doubt it. And without planning reform? With likely an end to FOM with the EU? I've got a bridge to sell you - except it will never get built.

Just like housing proposals in 1964-67 that crashed into the wall of building constraints. Got a couple of book chapters I can email you if you want.

Do we think rail performance will be much better in a Parliament or two without the TOCs? Not really. Does anyone think that PFIs can be quickly detached from SPVs and their rollback cost reduced? I'll see you in court. And so on.

The truth is, as lots of us told you in terms of #Brexit until we were blue in the face, that the British state lacks the capacity to run high-scale and rapid transformation. Labour will discover this very quickly.

What I would *expect*, though of course last few years show how wrong you can be, is a Lab govt polling in the teens or early 20s in the face of an extreme, populist and very Ukippy Con leader. Their own over-promise will be one key reason for this.

Threats and social media attacks on resistant Lab, SNP and LD MPs will rise very quickly and become endemic. Things will get very, very bitter, and very, very quickly - even without a recession.

Governing post-Brexit Britain, or Remain Britain in a very resistant and resentment landscape, will be very difficult indeed. Hard to see how anyone can do it. Happy Saturday night! 😂 /END