Thread by @ScottBarrettDFB

What “Running Backs Don’t Matter” Means to Me

A thread:

Rushing is massively inefficient compared to passing. Teams should be passing at a much higher rate.

There’s an ideal pass-to-run split, which will also be very dependent on player talent. I have no idea what that number is. It’s not 100:0. But I’m confident it’s higher than the current league average rate.

Rushing success has more to do with offensive line play than running back play. Running backs have a short shelf life, a high injury risk, and it’s easy to find a cheap replacement without losing much value.

All of this is true and you know it full well.

But running backs don’t “not matter”. They matter on a spectrum between quarterbacks and long-snappers.

Granted, they're probably closer to the latter than the former.

Passing is valuable. Rushing, mostly/typically, is not. So, do running backs who contribute in the passing game matter?

The elite ones do, and they matter more than you’d think.

In fact, (no hyperbole), there’s not too much separating the value created by elite pass-catching running backs and elite pass-catching tight ends.

Wide receivers matter way more than both, but let’s focus on running backs compared to tight ends.

It’s an easier comparison anyway due to chip blocks obscuring our route run data (for both RBs and TEs but not WRs).

2018 Leaders in Total EPA (Running Backs & Tight Ends)

1. Travis Kelce (TE)
2. George Kittle (TE)
3. Alvin Kamara (RB)
4. Mark Andrews (TE)
5. Todd Gurley (RB)
6. Christian McCaffrey (RB)
7. Eric Ebron (TE)
8. Kareem Hunt (RB)

Total

Tight Ends: 4
Running Backs: 4

Running backs are also being targeted now more than ever before. In 2017, for the first time this past decade, running backs out-targeted tight ends. They did it again in 2018.

In 2017, running backs were actually more efficient than tight ends through the air:

- All Running Backs: 1.31 yards per route run
- All Tight Ends: 1.29 yards per route run

In 2018, among all players with >60 targets:

- Running Backs: 1.61 yards per route run
- Tight Ends: 1.61 yards per route run

In 2018, among all players ranking top-11 at their position in targets:

- Running Backs: 1.69 yards per route run
- Tight Ends: 1.69 yards per route run

The most efficient running back (as a receiver) of the PFF-era is Darren Sproles.

Who owns some truly absurd numbers, that hold up against some of the league’s best tight ends:

https://twitter.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/1149198541434368001?s=20

One common criticism of running backs not mattering, even in the passing game, is that their receiving efficiency is less “sticky” or “predictive” than for other positions.

On the whole, this is very true.

Within the PFF-era (2007-2018), there are 90 instances of a RB recording back to back seasons of 50 or more targets. For TEs that number sits at 178.

Of those seasons, the r^2 to YPRR in the following season is:

- Running Backs: 0.017
- Tight Ends: 0.242

(This is bad.)

However, I wanted to see if this was true for the elite receivers at the position. The middle bulk of a sample is typically far less important and sticky. This should be especially true for RBs.

If we remove the Isaiah Crowell’s of the world, do our numbers become stronger?

Within the PFF-era (2007-2018), 17 individual RBs comprise 20% of all RB targets over this span (3842 of 7653).

When looking only at these RBs, we have 102 instances of a RBs totaling at least 25 targets in back to back seasons. For the top-17 TEs we have 140 seasons.

Here are the players in our sample:

Here's their r^2 correlations to yards per route run in the following season:

- Top-17 running backs: 0.192
- Top-17 tight ends: 0.190

Based on this sample, elite running backs are actually more consistent in receiving efficiency than elite tight ends.

This BLEW MY MIND.

In conclusion, rushing still doesn’t matter, but receiving running backs do matter, and more than you might think.

I don’t think Zeke is deserving of a massive contract (comparable to high-end TEs) but maybe Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey are.

/fin

This wasn't a fantasy thread. But here are my thoughts on the importance of pass-catching RBs for fantasy:

This blurb links here (2017): pff.com/news/fantasy-f…

and here (2018): pff.com/news/fantasy-f…

/fin