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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Nothing terribly profound here but a quick update to my candidate tiers based on recent polling movement, this week's debates, and who's likely to qualify for the next debates. 53eig.ht/2MvdYd6
I think it's hard to NOT have Biden as the frontrunner. His polling lead over the other candidates is pretty substantial. Primary polling isn't great but *good enough* that I don't think there's enough other data to outweigh it. He's still <50% vs. the field, though, IMO.
I've thought Sanders's chances have been overrated all cycle but the conventional wisdom has shifted to being a LOT more dismissive to the point where I'm *kinda* tempted to buy low? We'll see if he gets a bump in the polls, though.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Voters care about Joe Biden's age. They don't care about his gaffes. 53eig.ht/33L4mBk
^^^ So maybe the other candidates should be more explicit about making age an issue, as Swalwell was in the first debate.
We're at the point where Biden looks a liiiittle bit Trump-like in his ability to weather minor storms with his polling numbers intact. Maybe that won't hold up or maybe another candidate will surpass him even if he holds at ~30%. But other D's should consider a change of course.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
For people interested in Nov. 2020: The rule is look at macro indicators early (it's *very* early now) and micro indicators (i.e. state by state polls) late. Right now, a relatively minor increase in the risk of recession is a lot more material than a new poll in WI or whatever.
tbh I think people recall 538's highly detailed analysis of individual polls or the Electoral College math and sort of mimic the style, but they forget that there's a fairly particular time and place when we do it: Within a few months of the election and *not* a ton before that.
Doesn't mean you can't indulge in a little micro once in a while this far out from the election, it's fun to click on those Electoral College maps. But from a forecasting accuracy standpoint your view at this point should be 40% macro, 10% micro, 50% "we don't know anything yet".
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's probably worth asking how much Trump is lowering his re-election chances with this trade war stuff. Off-hand, I'd guess it's on the order of 5-10 percentage points, which, while not enormous, is a bigger impact than the large majority of events political reporters cover.
Looking forward to Nov. 4 '20 when the CW is that Elizabeth Warren rode to the White House on the basis of a populist surge and I'm all "#Ackshawlly, she won because Trump's populist trade war lowered industrial production in the Midwest, causing him to narrowly lose Wisconsin."
FWIW, I'm too lazy to look up what our model says about this so this might be slightly off, but my assumption is that lowering GDP growth by 1 percentage point would reduce Trump's re-election chances by something like 10 to 15 percentage points.
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