Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
It's probably worth asking how much Trump is lowering his re-election chances with this trade war stuff. Off-hand, I'd guess it's on the order of 5-10 percentage points, which, while not enormous, is a bigger impact than the large majority of events political reporters cover.
Looking forward to Nov. 4 '20 when the CW is that Elizabeth Warren rode to the White House on the basis of a populist surge and I'm all "#Ackshawlly, she won because Trump's populist trade war lowered industrial production in the Midwest, causing him to narrowly lose Wisconsin."
FWIW, I'm too lazy to look up what our model says about this so this might be slightly off, but my assumption is that lowering GDP growth by 1 percentage point would reduce Trump's re-election chances by something like 10 to 15 percentage points.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Nate Silver
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#Ackshawlly

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Disagree with this. Pollsters ought to publish their "outliers" unless literally they think there's a bug in how their results were collected or processed. Kudos to @MonmouthPoll for publishing a poll that they knew was probably going to differ from other results.
Failure to publish "outliers" yields cases like this in Australia, where polls that showed the right result were never published. Pollster herding is a way bigger problem than the occasional outlier.
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
Now, of course, there wasn't much excuse for the media to focus so much on that one n=298 Monmouth poll, which contradicted other data. Lots of blame to go around there. But two wrongs (the media overhyping individual polls and pollsters file-drawering polls) don't make a right.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Pouring one out for all those cable producers who rushed to produce hours' worth of television based on one fairly obvious outlier (Monmouth) earlier this week.
Although Monmouth is a very good pollster, its survey this week (<300 person sample, not driven by any news, contradicted by other data) was like something you'd teach on the first day of Polling Analaysis 101 as an example of a fairly obvious outlier...
...so since none of these polls *really* matter that much yet (it's August!), if you became very enamored with Monmouth because you liked the topline results, maybe a good opportunity to do a little self-critique on how you react to new polling data.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Joe Biden doesn't really have an enthusiasm problem. That's sort of a bullshit media narrative that isn't backed up by the data.

But he has something potentially worse: an Iowa problem.

53eig.ht/2Nzzaiv
Nationally, Biden has as much enthusiastic support as any other candidate. But in Iowa, he doesn't. He (and Bernie) are lapped by Warren, and to a lesser extent Harris and Buttigieg.
Iowa is a poor state for Biden demographically. Its caucus electorate is quite liberal and very white, and those aren't his strengths. So it isn't necessarily a canary in the coal mine. But it won't be easy for him to start out his campaign with a win there.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Steven Sinofsky
@stevesi
1/ OMG, the end of good times. No more left to do. Where’s the innovation. Shocking news from Apple on revenue, but needs some context.

Maturing or mature markets are not dead markets. The world did not change overnight even with this announcement.

This isn’t this is fine. This is fine but with a circle/slash around it.
2/ Smartphones are the first product that penetrated nearly the entire world from essentially two vendors (“google” and Apple). That itself is shocking.

It means dynamics at play are new to everyone. Predictions about future are tricky when one runs out of untapped customers.
3/ As many like @benedictevans and @asymco shown the growth in iPhone units has been slowing (to shrinking by some measures). That led to stopping the reporting of units from Apple “certainly a sign” as many noted.
Read 27 tweets
Profile picture
Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail
theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
A gauge of #technology shares on the MSCI #Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 3 percent before paring some losses - Bloomberg
🇺🇸 #SPX ⬇ as much as 1.9% from Tuesday’s close, before paring some losses. Selling pressure early in the session was so intense that it forced CME Group to intermittently pause trading, according to a spokesperson for the exchange - Bloomberg
*Link: bloom.bg/2BTw5DN
Read 736 tweets
Profile picture
snarke
@snarke
So #Trump is holding a news conference in about five minutes. I’ll be watching (and probably tweeting). Follow/mute at will!
Okay, #Trump has started speaking. He's already slurring. He's already made a joke about "a lot of......MEDIA.".

This does not bode well.
#Trump is now saying that China wants to "see me lose an election because they've never been challenged before."

It's not just China, pal.
Read 63 tweets
Profile picture
Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets
Profile picture
Zach Everson
@Z_Everson
Trump Hotels' website still lists Trump SoHo New York among its properties in the Our Hotels menu. Select its name though to access its page and there's a message about it being renamed

bit.ly/2EPCSy1
National politics correspondent for Newsweek, Nina Burleigh, with a fun find on a TV above the bar at the Trump Hotel DC bit.ly/2E37QRR
Two errors in the 2nd graf of Breitbart's Trump Hotel DC article:
-holdings aren't out of @realDonaldTrump's hands: trust isn't blind & he can profit from it
-Trump Org told Congress it was estimating foreign receipts—not auto donating in full
bit.ly/2CpL7z2
Read 1562 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Cloud #currency #GilroyGarlicFestival #makeamericagreatagain #cryptocurrency #Trump #TradeTalks #SkyNews #Globalists #TradeWar #ECB #Children #IMO2020 #GunRights #CIA #SueDonaldTrump #Audio #KAG #KORUS #RIP #chipmakers #BuildTheWall #WINNING #Trump2020 #HOAX
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!