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It's probably worth asking how much Trump is lowering his re-election chances with this trade war stuff. Off-hand, I'd guess it's on the order of 5-10 percentage points, which, while not enormous, is a bigger impact than the large majority of events political reporters cover.
Looking forward to Nov. 4 '20 when the CW is that Elizabeth Warren rode to the White House on the basis of a populist surge and I'm all "#Ackshawlly, she won because Trump's populist trade war lowered industrial production in the Midwest, causing him to narrowly lose Wisconsin."
FWIW, I'm too lazy to look up what our model says about this so this might be slightly off, but my assumption is that lowering GDP growth by 1 percentage point would reduce Trump's re-election chances by something like 10 to 15 percentage points.
