Thread by @HNIJohnMiller

1) The Democrats have two major issues in their primaries, and this comes from their top 5 candidates and their bottom 15 candidates.

2) The problem at the bottom is that anyone who tries to take a remotely moderate stance, which is what the Democrats actually need in 2020, isn't gaining any traction. With 20 candidates, the pool of potential support from the politically active is too diluted to gain traction

3) Someone like Delaney COULD gain ground, if there weren't a literal dozen other candidates with no political pulse soaking up the fringe moderates.

Yes. I said it. Fringe moderates. The politically active Democrats have gone so far left that moderates are a fringe group.

4) And that's the other problem. Biden demonstrably tried to move to the center, but the primaries have already been dragged so incredibly far to the left that he's to the left of Obama's policies. B/c there's no groundswell behind a moderate, he can't shift to the center.

5) The big advantage Hillary had in her 2016 primary was because Biden was so far to the left, she could come out looking like a moderate to the average American, especially if she painted Trump as far-right, which she and her media allies did rather well.

6) Biden doesn't have that advantage, because he's been forced to stake himself as farther left than BERNIE GODDAMN SANDERS, and any shifts to the center are impossible because he has to tout Obama's policies as his own to keep his air of legitimacy at the same time.

7) This was evidenced repeatedly last night. See him on immigration. He doesn't want open borders, but DACA.

See him on healthcare. He doesn't want medicare for all, but Obamacare.

He can't portray himself as a moderate, b/c there's no moderate for him to steal support from.

8) Let me throw it out like this: As per @Styx666Official, Biden has a floor of support, an absolute minimum level of support, of about 20% or so per the polls. He won't ever drop below that. Right now, he's having to compete with every other far leftist for the rest of the party

@Styx666Official 9) The way he wins in his current situation is by continuing to place himself on the left, shifting around that spectrum sniping away support from Sanders, Harris, and Warren.

Now, let's say you had someone like Delaney with 10-12% support, someone who's positioned as a moderate

@Styx666Official 10) Biden could actually stake himself out as a moderate right next to Delaney, steal his support away on name recognition alone, and be sitting pretty waffling between 30-40% without having to kill his support with independent swing voters who are scared by leftist policies.

@Styx666Official 11) That alone locks up the nomination and propels him to the general election looking like a moderate. That's what Hillary did. She let Sanders go hard left, came out of it looking like a moderate, and didn't actually lose the swing voters until her failcascade in the general.

@Styx666Official 12) And that's where the real overall problem for the Democrats occurs. They KNOW they need a moderate. They KNOW that the left will lose them swing voters. They KNOW this.

But the media wants far left candidates because the far left says ridiculous shit and drives ratings.

@Styx666Official 13) And that's why you have a decimation of the candidates going into the third debate. Only Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, Buttguy, Cookie Monster, and Beta are present.

The moderates have all checked out. There's no one for them to support.

@Styx666Official 14) Clinton always had Sanders. Biden's not had that advantage because he too got dragged left. By the time 2020 hits, the Democrats are going to look more like a funeral procession than a political party. Guaranteed.

@Styx666Official /end