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1/Thread about 3 big Trump era demographic/political trends we are tracking. First, erosion of GOP brand in heavily Mexican-American parts of US, incl AZ and TX, has been dramatic, consequential. ndn.org/blog/2019/02/n…
2/Second, huge swing of under 45 voters towards the Democrats over past few years. Could be most dramatic demographic development of Trump era. medium.com/@Simon_Rosenbe…
3/From 2000 to 2016 average Dem margin with under 45s was 6 points. Rs even won them in 2000, 2002, 2004.
In 2018 margin was 25 points, and margin is holding in early 2019 polling.
In 2018 margin was 25 points, and margin is holding in early 2019 polling.
4/Turnout among under 45s in 2018 was also up impressively.
5/And the argument we make in our piece is that under 45s are have swung wildly to the Ds not just due to Trump, but do their lived experience. In their lives Dem Presidents have made things better, Rs not so much. Data is pretty clear.
6/Finally, Trump's dramatic erosion in heavily Mexican-American parts of US, under 45s has not yielded gains in the heartland. Biden has huge leads over him in MI, PA, and Rs suffered blowouts there in 2018. ndn.org/blog/2019/06/d…
7/So lots of demo/geo loss for the Rs under Trump so far. Movement of under 45s existential threat to GOP, putting Texas in play huge, expensive R problem now. Rustbelt w the Ds now - sure appears Trumpism is a grand strategic failure at this point. ndn.org/blog/2019/06/t…
