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recap monthly MT GLOBAL M.PMI JuL2019 surveys - Business Confidence vs Markets thread 1/n
• still getting worse rather improving
• US caught up with GlobalSlowDown
• US/CZ 10Y low
• EZ/DE/NL/UK/CH/PL 6-7Y low
• disinflationary theme continues
• more CB action
• chartstorm
• still getting worse rather improving
• US caught up with GlobalSlowDown
• US/CZ 10Y low
• EZ/DE/NL/UK/CH/PL 6-7Y low
• disinflationary theme continues
• more CB action
• chartstorm
2/n Global & DM M. PMI 81M low , DM&EM remain <50
3/n Global M.PMI "heatmap"
4/n Global M.PMI Jul survey - update bubble chart: world's GDP contribution weighted
Germany ouch
Germany ouch
5/n Global M.PMI Jul survey - update DM/EM matrix
it's getting worse = skewed to the left
it's getting worse = skewed to the left
6/n Global M.PMI Jul survey - update PMI/eco data/markets Mom-Trend-Exhaust score
63% of tracked countries are now contracting = hence global bond rally continues, more central bank dovish action to come, some commodities are rich and so are some stock indices at the moment.
63% of tracked countries are now contracting = hence global bond rally continues, more central bank dovish action to come, some commodities are rich and so are some stock indices at the moment.
7/n Global M.PMI Jul survey - update "world" vs $ACWI and "EM" vs $EEM
8/n Global M.PMI Jul survey vs CMDTY "Energies" & "base Metals"
9/n Global M.PMI Jul survey - update vs Energies: $CL_F & $NG_F
10/n Global M.PMI Jul survey - update vs $HG_F & $PA_F
11/n Global M.PMI Jul survey - update world "big 4"
• US 50.6 scraping
• EZ 46.5, horrible
• China 49.9 and probably fake
• Japan 49.4
• US 50.6 scraping
• EZ 46.5, horrible
• China 49.9 and probably fake
• Japan 49.4
12/n US M.PMI - update vs $SPX & US10Y on YoY basis
13/n US M.PMI & SPX - update vs Credit Risk CDX on YoY basis
credit protection look cheap
credit protection look cheap
14/n US M.PMI & SPX - update vs implied stock vola
VIX (spot) 18-20 next
VIX (spot) 18-20 next
15/n Global M.PMI Jul survey - update Europe "big4"
• Germany still tanking 43.2 84M low
• France 49.7 back into contracting
• Italy 48.5
• Spain 48.2
gute Nacht Deutschland , recession is coming, not winter.
• Germany still tanking 43.2 84M low
• France 49.7 back into contracting
• Italy 48.5
• Spain 48.2
gute Nacht Deutschland , recession is coming, not winter.
16/n Eurozone M.PMI & STOXX - update vs credit risk YoY
no default risk, but credit protection is so low ?
no default risk, but credit protection is so low ?
17/n Eurozone M.PMI & STOXX - update vs XOVER (HY) and Financials Subs
should have , would have, could have... perhaps credit risk is not perceived what it used to be. or cheap ?
should have , would have, could have... perhaps credit risk is not perceived what it used to be. or cheap ?
18/n Eurozone M.PMI & STOXX - update vs implied stock vola VSTOXX
no words too. zero implications on the stark deteriorating business confidence.
no words too. zero implications on the stark deteriorating business confidence.
19/n country view: Germany M.PMI vs DAX & DE10Y on YoY basis
20/n country view: France M.PMI vs CAC & FR10Y
21/n country view: UK M.PMI vs FTSE & GB10Y
22/n country view: Canada M.PMI vs TSE & CA10Y
23/n general overview some 10Y govt bonds YoY cycles - the global bond rally on global disinflation
24/n general overview commodities cycles 1
25/n general overview commodities cycles 2
26/n general overview commodities cycles 3
27/end
saw this somewhere on twatter the other day ... 😂
this concludes the July PMI chart storm to form some bias.
x
saw this somewhere on twatter the other day ... 😂
this concludes the July PMI chart storm to form some bias.
x
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